clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Bucks vs. Suns Showdown on February 10

Garion Thorne gives his top NBA lineup advice for Wednesday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Bucks and Suns, which starts at 10:00 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee Bucks v Denver Nuggets Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

I almost feel like I owe the Milwaukee Bucks an apology. While I can certainly assume that Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) himself would tell me that the regular season doesn’t matter, Milwaukee still comes into tonight’s matchup with the Phoenix Suns leading the NBA in offensive rating (119.2) and net rating (10.1). I guess we’ve all sort of become desensitized to it, but even so, it remains impressive and worthy of mention.

Will they be able to keep the good times rolling on Wednesday? Let’s dive in from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIL vs PHO)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Devin Booker ($14,400 CP) - The important thing to remember with Booker’s viability in the Captain’s slot is how tied his fate happens to be to the health of Chris Paul ($8,600; hamstring). While Booker has maintained a well above-average 29.9% usage rate when playing beside Paul so far this season, the addition of the veteran guard has led to notable dips in Booker’s marks in points, rebounds and assists per game. Knowing that, it’s really no surprise that the Kentucky product had his best DFS performance of 2020-21 on Monday against the Cavaliers with Paul out of the lineup (54.75 DKFP). For Booker to reach his ceiling, he needs to massive boost to his assist rate that comes with the absence of Paul. So, if the 35-year-old does return to action this evening, I’d rather take a chance on someone like Deandre Ayton ($8,400) at 1.5x value, as the big man is grabbing 14.3 rebounds per contest going back to Jan. 18.

Khris Middleton ($14,100 CP) - This almost feels like a clerical error, but I’ll admit I meant to do it: I don’t think Antetokounmpo is the best Milwaukee asset to stick in the Captain’s slot on this slate. This isn’t just about how expensive the Greek Freak happens to be, or even about how efficient a scorer Middleton has been all season long. No, this comes down to the absence of Jrue Holiday (health protocols) and how Mike Budenholzer’s offense reacted to that news. Granted, we’re dealing with a one-game sample here, but it was Middleton, not Giannis, that acted as the interim point guard in Monday’s win over Denver, dishing out a career-high 12 assists. Still, this is about more than surface stats. It was also Middleton that led the Bucks in touches (83), time of possession (6.3 minutes) and passes made (59). Heck, Middleton had a whopping 23 potential assists to Antetokounmpo’s five. Middleton was already an All-Star before Holiday’s positive test result, so adding this new element to his skill set is a game changer.


Value UTIL Plays

E’Twaun Moore ($4,800) - Keeping in mind that the status of every Suns player is impacted by the availability of Paul, Moore would be in a very nice spot if the former All-Star is forced to sit for a second-straight contest. Moore stepped into Phoenix’s starting lineup against Cleveland, logging 39.7 minutes of action and finishing with 17 points and 29.25 DKFP. Honestly, even if Paul does end up playing, Moore could be a nice variance option. While his minutes volume specific to Monday was tied directly to the point guard’s absence, Moore’s role was increasing prior to the victory over the Cavaliers. In fact, Moore played over 20 minutes on both Jan. 5 and Jan. 7, as Jae Crowder ($5,800; out) has also been sidelined. All the veteran needs is one of his two teammates to be ruled out again on Wednesday.

Bryn Forbes ($4,200) - Forbes was also the recipient of a spot start on Monday, as the former Spur filled in for the missing Holiday. Obviously, Forbes inherited the point guard role in name only — as mentioned above, Middleton is the one acting as the lead guard — yet he was still able to finish the win with 15 points and 23.75 DKFP in 25.6 minutes of action. Funny enough, Forbes is averaging exactly 15.0 points per game so far in February, all while maintaining an eye-popping .798 true shooting percentage. The hot stretch has also translated into Forbes registering at least 19.0 DKFP in four of his last five appearances. In an expanded role, he’s very viable on this slate.


Fades

Bobby Portis ($6,000) - This is simply a case where Portis’ ceiling is baked into his price. The forward has the ability to be a microwave scorer — he’s managed to exceed 30.0 DKFP in eight of his 24 games so far in 2020-21 — yet more often than not, you’re going to be disappointed by paying up for the former first-round pick. To be completely honest, almost all of those explosive performances have come in contests where the script became completely lopsided, something I don’t think happens this evening. This tilt should be competitive and, because of that, Portis should end up underwhelming. Unless you’re someone who really enjoys a good narrative (it’s his birthday), fade the 26-year-old on Wednesday.


THE OUTCOME

Both these teams have been phenomenal against the spread as of late, with the Suns even going 9-0 ATS in their past nine games versus an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. Still, it’s hard to pick against the squad that’s statistically tops in the league by a wide margin if we don’t know the status of Chris Paul, especially with Khris Middleton currently playing the best basketball of his career. When a team’s No. 2 option on offense is also unstoppable, you’re going to win more often than not.

Final Score: Milwaukee 117, Phoenix 110

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIL vs PHO)


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).

21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.