Here are some plays that jump out on DraftKings at each position for Monday’s seven-game NBA slate, along with some strategy unique to this slate.
Worth Paying Up For: De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings vs. Brooklyn Nets ($8,800)
James Harden is the highest projected player on the slate, but I will likely fade him today. Am I scared? Of course, especially with Kevin Durant sitting, but I have my reasons. For starters, the Kings have done an excellent job against point guards this season, as they’ve neutralized the fantasy points per minute by 15.9% below the league average, the best in the league. Harden will get his, but a ceiling game may be more difficult to come by.
On the other side in this game is Fox. He’s averaging 1.22 DKFP per minute and gets a pace up game, as Brooklyn is fourth in offensive pace. They are also 22nd in defensive efficiency and boost the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 8.11%, fourth-most generous.
Over the past three games, Fox has contributed 43, 60 and 54 DKFP. On the season, he’s scored at least 60 DKFP in three games with one of those a 77.5 DKFP explosion. Harden has scored 62.5, 39.75 and 62 DKFP over the past three games and has gone for at least 60 DKFP in seven games since arriving in Brooklyn with a 79.5 DKFP ceiling. On average, Harden’s floor is higher and he will score more DKFP, but Fox can match him and has a similar ceiling.
Everything comes down to value, lineup construction and ownership percentages, but I’m leaning toward taking the $1,900 discount from Harden and hoping for a ceiling game from Fox and an average one from Harden.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Derrick Rose, New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks ($4,900)
Since arriving in New York three games ago, Rose has averaged 20.9 minutes, 14.7 points, one 3-pointer, 1.7 rebounds, four assists, 1.7 steals and 0.3 blocks. His usage rate has been 27.6%. In the most recent game, he played 22.5 minutes and garnered a 30.4% usage rate. Coach Tom Thibideau loves Rose, so there’s a chance that the minutes continue to tick up. That would be a boon for us since he averages 1.26 DKFP per minute.
Even if the extra playing time doesn’t manifest, Rose has a solid floor. Over the past three games, he’s contributed 23.75, 33.75 and 21.75 DKFP. He now gets a matchup against the Hawks, who are 14th in pace and boost the fantasy points per minute to shooting guards by 9.41% above the league average.
Worth Paying Up For: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards vs. Houston Rockets ($8,900)
Beal is averaging 1.41 DKFP per minute. He’s scored at least 50 DKFP in 10 games, with a high of 79.75 DKFP. Over the past three games, he’s put up 55.25, 40 and 54.25 DKFP. Now he gets a matchup against a Houston team that boosts the fantasy points per minute to shooting guards by 8.18% above the league average. The cherry on top is that this is the first time Beal has been priced below $9,000 since Dec. 27.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Jeremy Lamb, Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls ($4,800)
Doug McDermott had started the past two games, relegating Lamb to the bench. In the last game, he played only 19 minutes. However, McDermott is dealing with a sore right knee and is questionable for tonight’s game. If he can’t go, then Lamb will likely slide back into the starting lineup. On the season, he’s averaging 0.93 DKFP per minute and has scored at least 25 DKFP in seven games this season.
Worth Paying Up For: Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Miami Heat ($9,600)
I’m not crazy about the small forwards on this slate so I’m going with Kawhi. He sat yesterday due to a lower-leg bruise but having a back-to-back probably had something to do with it as well. Jimmy Butler ($8,200) is an excellent defender and will likely be matched up on Kawhi for most of the game. On the season, the Heat negates the fantasy points per minute to small forwards by 8.47% below the league average. With that said, Kawhi averages 1.35 DKFP per minute and Paul George could miss his sixth straight game. If so, Kawhi sees a usage bump of 2.9% to 33.6 when George is off the court.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Heat.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Danuel House Jr., Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards ($4,300)
House is coming off a 9.5 DKFP stinker, as he shot 0-for-8 from the field and only played 23 minutes. Bad shooting nights happen, but the game was also a blowout, so he didn’t get his normal playing time. In the prior four games, House had played 31, 34, 30 and 25 minutes while attempting 13, 13, 11 and 11 shots. He contributed 17, 36.5, 20.25 and 21.25 DKFP. On the season, House is averaging 0.69 DKFP per minute and 27.8 minutes per game. Now he gets one of the juiciest matchups for fantasy as the Wizards play at the fastest pace in the league and are 26th in defensive efficiency. This is an excellent bounce-back spot for House.
Worth Paying Up For: Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls ($9,100)
Sabonis is averaging 1.27 DKFP per minute and 35.8 minutes per game. Over his past four games, he’s scored 40.25, 41.25, 58.5 and 44.75 DKFP. Now he gets a matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace and are 25th in defensive efficiency. These two teams played in the second game of the season and Sabonis went for 22 points, 10 rebounds, 11 assists and one steal, good for 55 DKFP.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Jae’Sean Tate, Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards ($4,600)
Tate has started 16 games this season and averaged 27.9 minutes and 0.77 DKFP per minute. Over that span, he’s scored at least 25 DKFP seven times with a high of 38.75. This is a great matchup and the uptempo nature should benefit Tate.
Worth Paying Up For: Julius Randle, New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks ($8,700)
It’s a pace-up spot for the Knicks, as they are dead-last in pace while the Hawks are 14th. These two teams met back on Jan. 4 and Randle went for 28 points, 17 rebounds, nine assists and one steal, good for 62.75 DKFP. Things have changed since that game as the Knicks acquired Rose and Randle has failed to eclipse the 60-point DKFP threshold again, but he’s still an integral part of the Knicks’ offense and he’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in four of the past eight games.
Best Bang For Your Buck: JaVale McGee, Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors ($3,100)
The Cavaliers are sitting Andre Drummond while they look for a trade partner. As a result, Jarrett Allen will start while McGee will get the backup minutes. McGee rarely plays more than 20 minutes per game, but he’s productive when he’s on the court. On the season, he’s averaging 1.25 DKFP per minute and has scored at least 20 DKFP in 12 games this season with a high of 36.25.
Overall Lineup Strategy
The bubble-less NBA is turning into the wild west ... just like NFL and MLB were. So first and foremost, following the news is always a must in the NBA, but now it’s even more important. Make sure to follow @dklive on Twitter and download the DK Live app to stay up-to-date with all the latest news.
There’s a ton of value on this slate, especially at the center position. The Rockets are cheap as well with one of the most pristine matchups for DFS. As a result, John Wall could be the highest-rostered player at $7,500 in a revenge game against his former team. Both stars and scrubs and balanced roster constructions will be viable.
- Chandler Hutchison (personal)
- Lauri Markkanen (shoulder)
- Otto Porter (back)
- Victor Oladipo (foot/ankle)
- Christian Wood (ankle)
- Ish Smith (quad)
- De’Andre Hunter (knee)
- Rajon Rondo (back)
- Mitchell Robinson (hand)
- Shake Milton (ankle)
- Mike Conley (hamstring)
- Andre Drummond (trade)
- Kevin Love (calf)
- Larry Nance Jr. (finger)
- Kevon Looney (ankle)
- James Wiseman (wrist)
- Avery Bradley (calf)
- Goran Dragic (ankle)
- Kevin Durant (hamstring)
- Wendell Carter Jr. (quad)
- Doug McDermott (knee)
- Garrison Mathews (quad)
- Joel Embiid (back)
- Draymond Green (knee)
- Gabe Vincent (knee)
Paul George (foot)EDITOR’S NOTE: George has been ruled out.
Kawhi Leonard (leg)EDITOR’S NOTE: Leonard has been ruled out.
- Marvin Bagley (calf)
- DeAndre Jordan (personal)
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/NH/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL/TN only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.