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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Heat vs. Warriors Showdown on February 17

Garion Thorne gives his top NBA lineup advice for Wednesday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Heat and Warriors, which starts at 10:00 p.m. ET.

Miami Heat v Los Angeles Clippers Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

While the Golden State Warriors are just 5-5 across their past 10 games, they’ve definitely been playing some of their best basketball of the season. In fact, the team has the third-highest net rating (6.4) of any squad within that span of time, and it’s actually the defensive side where the Warriors have been conjuring most of their success, holding opponents to only 107.5 points per 100 possessions.

The Miami Heat have also been playing better as of late, thanks primarily to the return of Jimmy Butler ($10,400), who has two triple-doubles in his past three contests. It should be a competitive matchup this evening. Let’s break it down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIA vs GSW)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Stephen Curry ($18,000 CP) - Though you could definitely make the case that Draymond Green ($8,200) is viable tonight at 1.5x value, it’s hard to trust an asset that’s failed to score double-digit points in 21 of his 24 games this season — especially when your other Warriors-based option is Curry. The former MVP has been on absolute fire since the calendar flipped to February, with Curry averaging an eye-popping 36.3 points per game with a .772 true shooting percentage. It’s also a span of time where the guard has produced 55.5 DKFP per contest and has dropped at least 69.0 DKFP three times. Considering no Eastern Conference team is allowing more made opponent three-pointers per game than Miami (15.1), it’s difficult to envision the Heat shutting down Curry on Wednesday.

Jimmy Butler ($15,600 CP) - On a dollar-for-dollar basis, Butler is the best Captain’s pick on the slate. The forward has been a man on a mission since being activated from the league’s health and safety protocols nine games back, averaging 22.6 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists. It’s a stretch of elite production where Butler has only once registered fewer than 44.0 DKFP, and that was mostly due to game script in a blowout loss to the red-hot Jazz this past weekend. While the scoring and rebounding totals aren’t necessarily a surprise, Butler’s passing has been a revelation. Don’t get me wrong, the veteran could always create out of the pick-and-roll, but Butler’s essentially been acting as the Heat’s primary point guard with Goran Dragic (ankle) sidelined. Butler’s dished out 16.3 potential assists per contest in his last nine starts — the fifth-most of any NBA player in that same span. In this role, Butler’s a triple-double waiting to happen.


Value UTIL Plays

Kendrick Nunn ($6,600) - Nunn is another Miami asset that has benefitted greatly from the absence of the aforementioned Dragic. Well, he’s benefitted from all of the Heat’s injury woes, if we’re being honest. Prior to playing just 21.5 minutes in Monday’s loss to the Clippers, Nunn had logged at least 30 minutes of action in 12-straight games — a stretch where he’d also averaged 17.9 points. Obviously, Nunn’s seen his usage rate and assist numbers drop with the return of Butler, yet his fantasy production has basically stayed on par with that of Tyler Herro ($7,400), who comes into this slate almost $1K more expensive. I’m not too worried about Nunn’s role decreasing versus Los Angeles. It was one night. As long as he’s starting, he’s viable.

Kent Bazemore ($3,000) - Golden State isn’t really a team that gets a lot of production from it’s bench, which can make finding a “value play” a little tough, yet Bazemore’s been quietly productive so far in February. The Warriors have actually been crushing opponents with Bazemore on the floor over their past eight games, while the guard himself has averaged 1.05 DKFP per minute with a .696 true shooting percentage. If you’re only going to log around 20 minutes per contest, you’d better be efficient, right?


Fades

Andrew Wiggins ($7,800) - With Curry handling the high-usage scoring role, Green acting as the Warriors’ primary creator and Kelly Oubre ($8,000) racking up all the tertiary hustle stats, there’s really not much left on the bone for Wiggins, who has been struggling to find his shot as of late. Over Golden State’s past five games, the former first-overall pick is averaging a mere 15.6 points, while shooting an anemic 27.2% (6-for-22) from three-point range. Not to oversimplify things too drastically, but if Wiggins isn’t scoring, he isn’t really all that useful from a fantasy standpoint. He’s also not showcased much of a ceiling in 2020-21, as he’s managed to exceed 35.0 DKFP just twice in his past 17 starts.


THE OUTCOME

As mentioned right off the hop, the Warriors are in the midst of a really solid stretch of play. Their recent net rating suggests they’ve been better than their modest record and, in terms of trends, they’ve covered seven of their past nine home matchups against opponents with losing records. Miami might be starting to turn things around, but its also 0-5 ATS in its last five contests against a team above .500 and 3-9 ATS in its past 12 games overall. When push comes to shove, I’ll side with the team that’s rostering a red-hot Steph Curry.

Final Score: Golden State 109, Miami 103

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIA vs GSW)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


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