It’s Groundhog Day and we’ve got a nice six-game NBA featured slate this evening on DraftKings. It’s Groundhog Day and we’ve got a nice six-game NBA featured slate this evening on DraftKings. It’s Groundhog Day and we’ve got a nice six-game NBA featured slate this evening on DraftKings. It’s Groundhog Day and we’ve got a nice six-game NBA featured slate this evening on DraftKings.
Get it? Uhh... Bill Murray. Never mind. Let’s just break this thing down position-by-position.
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Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards, $10,700 - The decision between Lillard and James Harden ($10,900) is a difficult one, as both players are high-ceiling assets in incredible matchups on Tuesday. However, I’ll side with Portland’s lone superstar over a member of Brooklyn’s big three. Lillard has posted a 33.0% usage rate and is averaging 1.43 DKFP per minute when playing with C.J. McCollum (foot) sidelined this season. Considering Lillard is just a few days removed from dropping 44 points and 67.75 DKFP on the Bulls — a team quite comparable to the Wizards — I see huge things in store of the All-Star this evening.
De’Anthony Melton, Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers, $4,500 - Melton’s season has been a rollercoaster. There’s been injury issues, there’s been COVID postponements and there’s been a few DNP-CD’s. Still, with Grayson Allen ($4,100; health protocols) likely to miss another game on Tuesday, Melton’s probably locked into roughly 30 minutes of action. In fact, over Memphis’ past two contests, it’s Melton’s who’s played a team-high 121 possessions. He’s averaged 38.0 DKFP within that span and his price really hasn’t changed, so I’m willing to go back to the well.
Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors, $6,300 - On the surface, this doesn’t look like an overly appealing spot. Fournier’s shot just 20.0% (5-for-25) from the field in his past two starts and Toronto’s surrendering the fewest DKFP per game to opposing shooting guards. However, with Aaron Gordon (ankle) now out 4-6 weeks, it’s Fournier that stands to gain from a fantasy perspective. Gordon was basically acting as a point-forward since Markelle Fultz’s (knee) injury, and now the offense will run through Fournier, who owns a team-high 33.3% assist rate with Gordon and Fultz sidelined so far in 2020-21. He’s also averaging 1.18 DKFP per minute that those scenarios.
Garrison Matthews, Washington Wizards vs. Portland Trail Blazers, $3,600 - Matthews is by no means a high-usage asset playing alongside Bradley Beal ($9,900) and Russell Westbrook ($9,100), but he has logged the second-most minutes (132) of any Wizards player since the team returned to action back on Jan. 24. Obviously, Washington’s rotation is in serious flux right now and could change at any moment; yet if Matthews can register 25-plus minutes on Tuesday, he’ll be hard pressed not to reach 5x value in a game with an implied total of over 240 points.
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers at Brooklyn Nets, $9,200 - Leonard hasn’t reached his true ceiling very often in 2020-21, as he’s managed to exceed 60.0 DKFP only once; however, two games removed from exiting the league’s health protocols, a matchup with the Nets seems like a solid recipe to get back to that level. Not only should the former Finals MVP be engaged for a contest against the new super team, but Brooklyn’s defense has been horrendous since acquiring Harden. In fact, the Nets have allowed 124.5 opponent points per 100 possessions across their last three games. If Leonard wants to, he’ll score a will.
Bojan Bogdanovic, Utah Jazz vs. Detroit Pistons, $5,900 - Bogdanovic is a difficult asset to trust as he provides little when his shot isn’t falling, but, to be fair to him, right now his shot is falling. The forward is averaging 30.5 points and 38.5 DKFP across his past two starts and, going back a little farther, Bogdanovic has now exceeded 25.0 DKFP in six of his past eight games. He’s far from my favorite play on this slate, yet he’s clearly back to being himself after a rough beginning to 2020-21.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, $8,600 - The Celtics are a top-heavy team, so when one piece is missing — in this case Marcus Smart (calf) — everyone else gets a bump. To wit, for the season as a whole, Tatum is averaging 1.30 DKFP per minute with a 30.9% usage rate. With Smart off the court, those numbers jump to 1.49 DKFP and 33.1%, respectively. Honestly, even without factoring in Smart’s absence, Tatum is always interesting when his price is below $9K, so he’s worthy of a serious look on this slate.
Jeff Green, Brooklyn Nets vs. Los Angeles Clippers, $5,400 - While Green’s 23-point outburst against the Wizards is probably an aberration, the veteran has been logging some serious minutes in recent weeks. In fact, Green’s been playing 32.0 minutes per game dating back to Jan. 13, a stretch of time where the forward has scored double-digit points in every contest and is averaging 25.6 DKFP. Yes, this is the highest Green’s price tag has been all season, but I’m willing to consider him viable in a matchup that promises to be high-scoring and uptempo.
Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, $7,700 - Say what you will about the All-Star’s consistency so far in 2020-21, but Siakam has looked like a different player over his past two games. The forward has only attempted three three-pointers in that span, instead focusing on scoring around the rim. The result? 24.0 paint points per contest and 20 total free throw attempts. I wouldn’t expect that strategy to change this evening, with Orlando’s two best defensive options for Siakam — Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Issac — both unavailable.
Aron Baynes, Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, $4,300 - Sticking with Toronto, Baynes is coming off playing a season-high 29.1 minutes against this same Magic squad on Sunday, the result of the presence of Nikola Vucevic ($8,200) and the absence of OG Anunoby (calf). Chris Boucher ($4,900) simply doesn’t have enough bulk to matchup with Vucevic in the post, so I’d expect Baynes to see a similar workload this evening. If that’s the case, maybe he’ll grab 13 defensive rebounds again, as Orlando does own the league’s lowest true shooting percentage (.488). Basically, the Magic are a brick factory.
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