The Waste Management Phoenix Open (WMPO) has been an annual source of excitement on the PGA TOUR, seeing upwards of 210,000 fans at the tournament on a given day. Due to COVID-19 safety protocols, the PGA TOUR will not have the same amount of fans on-site but will still have them present at a maximum of 5,000 per day.
The field is very top-heavy, with four of the top six golfers in OWGR teeing it up in Scottsdale, Arizona this week—and the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board reflects this distribution with only six golfers between +2300 and +5000. Depending on how you want to build your DraftKings Sportsbook betting card this week, you could get a lot of value choosing golfers above +5000. The risk, however, is how much win equity is at the top of the betting board.
The average odds over the past seven winners here is +4100, with the longest coming from Kevin Stadler at +12500 in 2014 and the shortest coming from Hideki Matsuyama at +1100 in 2017.
Like I mentioned in the DraftKings Preview article, Zalatoris had an excellent weekend ball-striking but couldn’t get the putter going on Sunday. His play over the weekend was great otherwise, ranking 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Zalatoris has the propensity to hit some wayward drives, ranking 113th in fairways gained over his last 12 rounds, but is fourth in driving distance over the same timeframe. If given a choice, I’m choosing length over accuracy in this range, and the Wake Forest alum has been hitting it pure. Zalatoris has top 10s at three different types of courses on the PGA TOUR so far (Torrey Pines, TPC Summerlin and Winged Foot), proving his ability to play the course rather than leaning on his strengths alone. It’s only a matter of time before he wins, and this could be the breakout tournament that starts his run.
Sometimes a number is too enticing to pass up, which is why we should be considering Koepka if his number keeps on increasing. Dressing up his current form into something nice and pretty wouldn’t be prudent; he’s been bad recently. Still, getting a four-time major winner at this price is what we should weigh here and is probably the only golfer whose “A-game” can compete with the top of this board. The question becomes, “is the A-game close?” Hopefully, he recalls what he did back in 2015, gaining 9.5 strokes tee-to-green.
Munoz feels mispriced this week with his outright odds the same as someone like Bo Hoag. Munoz’s is also higher than golfers like Lucas Glover (+12500) and Talor Gooch (+12500), which again feels mispriced. It’s nothing against these golfers, but Munoz’s current form, and ceiling, is higher than theirs, with recent top 10s at the TOUR Championship and the CJ Cup. A top 20 at the Masters back in November should also indicate how well he can play against a strong field. He’s top 50 in SG: Ball-Striking, top 40 in opportunities gained and top 25 in birdies or better gained over the previous 50 rounds.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.