The Waste Management Phoenix Open (WMPO) has been an annual source of excitement on the PGA TOUR, seeing upwards of 210,000 fans at the tournament on a given day. Due to COVID-19 safety protocols, the PGA TOUR will not have the same amount of fans on-site but will still have them present at a maximum of 5,000 per day.
The field is very top-heavy, with four of the top six golfers in OWGR teeing it up in Scottsdale, Arizona this week—and the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board reflects this distribution with only six golfers between +2300 and +5000. Depending on how you want to build your DraftKings Sportsbook betting card this week, you could get a lot of value choosing golfers above +5000. The risk, however, is how much win equity is at the top of the betting board.
The average odds over the past seven winners here is +4100, with the longest coming from Kevin Stadler at +12500 in 2014 and the shortest coming from Hideki Matsuyama at +1100 in 2017.
For a full course preview and key statistics breakdown, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Place your PGA TOUR golf bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Will Zalatoris to Win +5000
Like I mentioned in the DraftKings Preview article, Zalatoris had an excellent weekend ball-striking but couldn’t get the putter going on Sunday. His play over the weekend was great otherwise, ranking 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Zalatoris has the propensity to hit some wayward drives, ranking 113th in fairways gained over his last 12 rounds, but is fourth in driving distance over the same timeframe. If given a choice, I’m choosing length over accuracy in this range, and the Wake Forest alum has been hitting it pure. Zalatoris has top 10s at three different types of courses on the PGA TOUR so far (Torrey Pines, TPC Summerlin and Winged Foot), proving his ability to play the course rather than leaning on his strengths alone. It’s only a matter of time before he wins, and this could be the breakout tournament that starts his run.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Flop Shot [$200K to 1st]
Brooks Koepka to Win +5500 | Top 5 +1000
Sometimes a number is too enticing to pass up, which is why we should be considering Koepka if his number keeps on increasing. Dressing up his current form into something nice and pretty wouldn’t be prudent; he’s been bad recently. Still, getting a four-time major winner at this price is what we should weigh here and is probably the only golfer whose “A-game” can compete with the top of this board. The question becomes, “is the A-game close?” Hopefully, he recalls what he did back in 2015, gaining 9.5 strokes tee-to-green.
Sebastian Munoz Top 10 +1100 | Top 20 +450
Munoz feels mispriced this week with his outright odds the same as someone like Bo Hoag. Munoz’s is also higher than golfers like Lucas Glover (+12500) and Talor Gooch (+12500), which again feels mispriced. It’s nothing against these golfers, but Munoz’s current form, and ceiling, is higher than theirs, with recent top 10s at the TOUR Championship and the CJ Cup. A top 20 at the Masters back in November should also indicate how well he can play against a strong field. He’s top 50 in SG: Ball-Striking, top 40 in opportunities gained and top 25 in birdies or better gained over the previous 50 rounds.
Place your PGA TOUR golf bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
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