There’s a new stop on the PGA TOUR for the first WGC event of the season. In Bradenton, Florida, Concession Golf Club will be the WGC-Workday Championship site, which is replacing the WGC-Mexico this season due to COVID-19 precautions.
DraftKings roster percentage at WGC events tends to concentrate on certain players and ranges, with 73 of the top-ranked golfers in OWGR. Eight of the top 10 highest projected players this week are over $8,800. Still, we’ve seen cheap golfers like Erik van Rooyen, Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Shubhankar Sharma finish high in DraftKings scoring and not have the same projected roster percentage as their higher-salary peers. Even though top-ranked golfers usually win WGCs, Concession Golf Club is a new course on the PGA TOUR, which means anything could happen.
Course history, current form, or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected DraftKings ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs on DraftKings.
For a full course preview and who I like in the DraftKings Sportsbook betting market, please refer to DraftKings Preview and the Best Bets articles on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Justin Thomas ($10,500)
Pivot: Patrick Cantlay ($10,000)
Editor’s note: Patrick Cantlay has withdrawn from the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession.
Pivoting off of Thomas is less of an indictment on his game and more of an endorsement of Cantlay’s stellar play. Thomas is a favorite of many in the DFS community, which has inflated his roster percentage and potentially makes him a small risk with two missed cuts in his last three worldwide events. Cantlay rarely plays in Florida, but he’s put together a fantastic recent resume, with two Top 3s and a win in his last five starts. He ranks second in SG: Tee-to-Green over his previous 24 rounds and has proved he can play well on a Nicklaus course, winning the 2019 Memorial Tournament.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,600)
Pivot: Scottie Scheffler ($8,300)
Roster percentage is concentrating near Hatton’s price, which makes sense with the strength of a WGC. Hatton’s current stretch of success on the European Tour and how well he plays in Florida projects him to be the highest rostered golfer in this range. Like Thomas, Hatton is a solid play this week, but Scheffler should be considered this week more than what he’s projecting at. A quiet top 20 last week, Scheffler is no stranger to playing well in fields of this stature, with a 19th at Augusta National back in November and a top 5 at the TOUR Championship last season. Scheffler’s been positive with his irons in his previous three starts and ranks 24th in the field in SG: Ball-Striking over his last 24 rounds. Scheffler finished 22nd in his only start at the Memorial, ranking 14th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green that week. The putter has been a little inconsistent, but he was able to gain 5.1 strokes on the bermuda greens at Waste Management, which ranked seventh in the field.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Ryan Palmer ($7,200)
Pivot: Harris English ($7,500)
Another golfer featured in my DraftKings Preview article, Ryan Palmer, should be a good fit for this course, objectively speaking, but he’s projected to be one of the highest owned golfers this week. It doesn’t appear English will be the lowest-rostered golfer in this range, but he’s more appealing at his roster percentage over Palmer. As mentioned in the DraftKings Sportsbook Best Bets article, English probably hit a wall after his win at The Tournament of Champions in Kapalua and missed back-to-back cuts a couple of weeks later. English has finished inside the top 17 in his last two starts at the Honda Classic, another Nicklaus design in Florida, and finished 10th in the WGC-Cadillac Championship at Doral, which is also a long Florida course with bermuda greens.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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