The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
The DraftKings Contender Boats 250 slate locks at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
1. Noah Gragson ($11,300) - This is the lock of the week. Gragson embarrassed the field in last year’s Homestead races. He’s Tyler Reddick 2.0. No one can beat Gragson’s wall riding on the long run. The only way that Gragson can lose is if there is a late race caution just like last season. If that’s the case, it doesn’t matter for DFS players. He doesn’t need to win, if he scores 40 hog points (fast laps and laps led points).
2. Austin Cindric ($10,200) - The #22 car was fast, but Cindric could not run the wall at Homestead. In stage 3 of both races, he hit the wall and had to pit for damage. On short runs, Cindric was the fastest car on the track, but on the long run, where running the wall is necessary, Cindric could not get it done.
3. Harrison Burton ($9,600) - In the first Homestead race, Burton was running in a distant third place before the race altering caution on lap 162 of 167. On the green-white finish, Burton easily passed Noah Gragson’s long run car for the win.
4. Tyler Reddick ($11,700) - Here is what we know. Reddick is starting in the back at his best track. The question is what kind of car does he have. He was scheduled to drive for Our Motorsports, but they do not have points, so he is registered in the RSS car. It’s likely that this is Our Motorsports equipment and RSS in name only. If so, then Reddick will be a smash play.
5. Brandon Jones ($9,300) - The JGR cars are strong and Jones has slowly become a top tier driver in the Xfinity Series. It’s unlikely that Jones will run the wall and battle for the lead for most of this race, but he can hang onto the lead lap. In the second Homestead race, Jones was feet from passing Briscoe for the win during the overtime shootout.
6. Riley Herbst ($8,700) - This is another chalky play. Herbst improved over the course of his two Homestead races last season. He didn’t master the track, but he’s a top 10 driver based on talent. He’s a possible winner based on equipment (#98 Haas car).
7. Daniel Hemric ($9,100) - It must be nice to be Daniel Hemric. He has failed at every level of the stock car racing, but every time he fails, he is given better equipment. Hemric got wrecked during last year’s shootout finish. If there is a late race caution, then Hemric will again be right there battling on the last restart.
8. Justin Haley ($8,900) - The Kaulig cars were not fast enough to compete at intermediate tracks last season. Chastain often found some speed by pushing these cars to the limit, but that often resulted in damage or fall off on long runs. Haley is in the same spot. His intermediate track hopes are in the hands of the caution gods.
9. Ty Dillon ($10,500) - The JGR all-star car has not been great over the last couple seasons. However, this week it was announced that Ty Gibbs will run the majority of the races for the #54 car this season. Money will pour into this car. Dillon has the equipment, but can he run the wall?
10. JJ Yeley ($5,700) - This was written almost every week last season. The #17 car, formerly the #07 car for Bobby Dotter/Rick Ware, was a top 20 car last season depending on the driver. Yelley finished 11th at Homestead in this car last season.
11. Myatt Snider ($8,300) - Most of Snider’s 2020 stats can be thrown out because he was racing in an RSS/Reaume car. Unfortunately, the 2020 stats that count, aren’t very good either. Snider was disappointing in his few attempts in RCR equipment.
12. Justin Allgaier ($9,900) - Thankfully, Allgaier is not starting in the back. If he were, this would be dangerous chalk. Allgaier has been a disaster in the last three Homestead races. It’s a miracle that the track still has walls.
13. Josh Berry ($7,800) - Until DFS players become familiar with Berry, this needs to be repeated. Berry is a highly accomplished late model racer, and this is the first season where Berry will get an extended look in a stock car for Jr Motorsports. Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Daniel Hemric were top 5 drivers in this car last season at Homestead.
14. Jeffrey Earnhardt ($7,500) - In this equipment, Earnhardt earned a 16th and a 19th place finish last season at Homestead. He should be able to replicate that finish in his #0 JD Motorsports car.
15. AJ Allmendinger ($11,000) - He refused to run the wall at Homestead last season and it almost paid off. Allmendinger is not going to win this race running the wall, but he can hang around inside the top 10, and hope for a late race caution. That’s how he earned a 4th place finish last season.
16. Brett Moffitt ($7,700) - It’s going to be hard for Moffitt to score a lot of points, but he doesn’t need a lot of points. He only needs to outscore other drivers in his price range. It’s not hard to imagine Moffitt outscoring the inferior equipment in the $7,000 tier.
17. Santino Ferrucci ($7,300) - This isn’t a one and done part time driver, and this team is running the whole season. It might be too early to buy in on Ferrucci. His equipment is a mystery and he’s never raced a stock car, but it’s better to be early than late.
18. Michael Annett ($8,500) - For the last several years, Annett has consistently been a 10th to 15th place driver. A 10th place finish will work, but a 15th place finish will not work. Somehow, he snuck into the winning lineup last week.
19. Ryan Sieg ($8,000) - Last year, Sieg followed an unconventional pit strategy and this led to significant laps led and fast lap points. Unfortunately, this strategy put him on old tires several times and he lost the lead lap, and blew a tire.
20. Ryan Vargas ($6,900) - The car is good enough to finish 20th to 25th and the driver’s talent level matches those outcomes. The biggest concern is that Vargas has never raced at Homestead. Will he be able to save tires in stage 3?
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