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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Celtics vs. Kings Showdown on February 3

Garion Thorne gives his top NBA lineup advice for Wednesday’s fantasy basketball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Celtics and Kings, which starts at 10:00 p.m. ET.

Sacramento Kings v New Orleans Pelicans Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images

If you had asked me to handicap a game between the Boston Celtics and Sacramento Kings two weeks ago, I’d have had a pretty quick assessment about the former’s overwhelming advantage. However, the Kings are suddenly playing some of their best basketball of the season, having gone 4-1 across their past five contests with an offensive rating of 116.3.

Can Sacramento continue to play above expectation this evening? Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Editor’s Note: Celtics PG Kemba Walker (rest) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Kings.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (BOS vs SAC)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Jayson Tatum ($15,900 CP) - There’s a case to be made that Jaylen Brown ($9,600) might be the superior play at 1.5x value as he comes in slightly cheaper than his teammate, but I still believe that Tatum possesses the higher DFS ceiling. That thought process is assisted by the fact that Marcus Smart (calf) will once again be sitting on the sideline for this matchup. In the 209 minutes Tatum has played without Smart on the court in 2020-21, the All-Star is averaging 1.42 DKFP per minute with a usage rate of 32.9% — both team-highs. It also doesn’t hurt matters that’s Tatum’s registered at least 35.0 DKFP in 13 of his 14 starts this season, displaying the type of sturdy floor that most crave in a Captain’s pick.

De’Aaron Fox ($15,300 CP) - Fox has long been an intriguing fantasy asset, and it finally feels like we’re starting to witness his true breakout season, as the guard has been able to stay healthy to this point in 2020-21. Through 20 contests, Fox is averaging career-highs in points per game (22.1), true shooting percentage (.561) and usage rate (30.5%). I’d wager he’s also in the best shape of his life, because Luke Walton has clearly decided to absolutely run his starters into the ground as of late. Across Sacramento’s past seven games, Fox is logging 36.4 minutes per night and has registered a whopping 96.4 touches per contest — the second-highest mark in the NBA within that span. Knowing all that, it won’t come as a shock to find out that Fox is putting up 49.5 DKFP dating back to Jan. 17. Again, he’s currently in what’s easily the best stretch of his young career.


Value UTIL Plays

Daniel Theis ($5,600) - Theis’ role on the Celtics has been a little inconsistent so far this season, but there’s no denying that he’s been playing his best basketball of the year these past two weeks. In Boston’s last seven games, Theis is averaging 13.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 27.0 DKFP, while he’s managed to exceed 27.0 DKFP in four of the five contests he’s played since returning to the Celtics’ starting lineup. Additionally, Theis has been super efficient in 2020-21, leading the NBA in two-point field goal rate (69.8%). Specific to tonight, the Kings have tended to be a good matchup for interior assets, as they always feature one traditional big man in either Richaun Holmes ($8,000) or Hassan Whiteside ($4,000). That should equate to a large role for Theis, going against a defense that’s allowed the seventh-most DKFP per game to opposing centers.

Cory Joseph ($1,000) - I’m not going to sit here and feed you some nonsense about Joseph being a high-upside asset on this slate. Heck, with the aforementioned Fox starting to log some serious minutes the past few weeks, Joseph’s role has actually shrunk significantly since the beginning of the season. Still, I can’t figure out the justification for having him priced at the minimum. The veteran point guard has appeared in every game this season for the Kings, usually logging around 15 minutes of action with on-ball responsibilities. Sure, Joseph’s only averaging 0.73 DKFP per minute in 2020-21, but even if he’s just able to maintain that efficiency this evening, he’ll be flirting with 10x or 15x value. Obviously you don’t need to get him in every lineup, yet his price tag will certainly help with some builds.


Fades

Buddy Hield ($8,400) - This is less a straight fade of Hield as it is an endorsement of the cheaper Harrison Barnes ($7,800). While all of Sacramento’s starters are playing heavy minutes lately, it’s Barnes shouldering the largest load, averaging an eye-popping 37.5 minutes per game across the Kings’ past five contests. Not surprisingly, this has correlated with the forward’s best fantasy stretch of the season, as Barnes has exceeded 37.0 DKFP in four of those five starts. It’s a span of time where Barnes is also averaging more DKFP per minute (1.00) with a higher true shooting rate (.757) than Hield. So, if you’re stuck needed an UTIL option in this price range, I’d have Barnes ranked ahead of his teammate.


THE OUTCOME

For as good as the Kings have been looking recently, this is still a matchup where the Celtics will have the two best players on the floor in Tatum and Brown. Boston also hasn’t been very susceptible to the usually dreaded second game of a back-to-back, as the Celtics are an impressive 7-0 ATS in their past seven games with zero days rest. Meanwhile, Sacramento is an underwhelming 4-7 ATS at home in 2020-21.

Final Score: Boston 115, Sacramento 106

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (BOS vs SAC)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


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