The Super Bowl is here and that means and overwhelming amount of props to be bet. Let’s focus in on the Kansas City Chiefs’ side of the game here and hone in on some player props on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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We’re laying a lot of juice here, but I think this has such a good chance to be the right side that I’m willing to lay it. Last year I bet a handful of juiced up matchup props between Mahomes and Jimmy G, and wound up cashing the large majority. This time around, Tom Brady makes for much more difficult opposition, but Mahomes should win the passing yards matchup in the majority of the range of outcomes. Mahomes averaged 23 more passing yards per game in the regular season, and dominated the regular season matchup with 462 yards to 345 for Brady. Kansas City has an underrated secondary that’s done well in the postseason, really limiting an explosive Buffalo passing game in the AFC Championship game. The Bucs are on a hot run right now, but if there’s a weakness if their defense, it’s clearly the secondary. The last factor is how good Tampa’s run defense is — if the Chiefs opt to run less, it just means more opportunities for Mahomes.
I really do think the Chiefs go extremely pass-heavy in this game, but I can’t ignore how low this number is. We talked about this one extensively on the Unreasonable Odds Podcast, and while I tried my best to give resistance, it’s still a strong bet. CEH played for the first time since Week 15 in the AFC Championship game, rushing six times for just seven yards. It wasn’t an encouraging performance, and now the rookie will be facing the league’s top rush defense. But that’s why we have the discount. CEH is still the starting RB for the favorite in this game, and has had to weeks to get healthier now. That means we should see his role grow. CEH eclipsed this number of carries in 11-of-13 regular season contests (including 11 carries versus Tampa in Week 12).
I may wind up backing Hill in multiple ways in this game, just because the matchup is so good. Hill finished with a 13-269-3 line on 15 targets in the Week 12 matchup, and while the Bucs have to put a strong focus on limiting Hill this time around, the secondary is still the weakness of this defense. I like playing O92.5 yards in this one, but it is sitting up at -130, and the yards could go up by kickoff. I’m equally as confident in the receptions number, which gets us plus money. Hill wasn’t just catching bombs for his three touchdowns in this matchup, clearly evident by his 13 receptions. Kansas City has put an emphasis on getting Hill the ball in the postseason, hitting eight receptions against the Browns (with almost a half of Chad Henne at QB), and nine receptions against the Bills. The deep shots are great, but there will be plays run simply to get the ball in Hill’s hands and let him go — look at the game-winner against Cleveland.
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