Following Brooks Koepka’s overdue win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, the PGA TOUR will stay out west this week for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Even though the name suggests otherwise, the California event won’t actually be a pro-am. Usually, each professional golfer is paired with an amateur player for the week. But, due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, this part of the event has been canceled for 2021. Also, this tournament normally consists of three courses; this year, the field will only play two tracks. Pebble Beach Golf Club (par 72, 6,814 yards) and Spy Glass Hill (par 72, 7,041 yards). Each golfer will play one round at these two venues then there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut line following the first 36 holes. Afterwards, the final two rounds will be held at Pebble Beach Golf Club, making it the “host” course of the week and the track we should put all our attention towards. Thankfully, all of the SG stats we have from previous versions of this event comes exclusively from Pebble Beach Golf Club, given that it is the only course of this event that has provided Shot Link data.
This short par 72 requires no extra distance off the tee, so most players will be keeping their drivers in their bags. Plain and simple, Pebble Beach Golf Club is a second-shot course, and strong iron play is pivotal to success. During his four-stroke win here a year ago, Nick Taylor (-19) ranked T3 in GIR; three of the past five winners have finished inside the top-five in this stat. Furthermore, during this stretch, two of the golfers to take home the top prize at Pebble Beach have led their fields in SG APP. The par fours are without question the most important holes at Pebble Beach Golf Club. Dating back to 2013, every golfer to record a victory at this PGA stop has finished inside the top three in SG on the par fours during their wins. While we should be putting the larger weight on par four play this week, you also need to be able to capitalize on the par fives. Over the last three years, each AT&T Pebble Beach champ has ranked in the top three in SG on the par fives.
Evident from Taylor’s 19-under-par winning number last year, we can expect low scores at Pebble Beach — and prioritizing birdies makers is a must. Every winner since 2016 has led their fields or been runner-up in total birdies converted on these POA greens. Following multiple withdrawals — most notably this week’s favorite to win and world No. 1 ranked player Dustin Johnson — this has quickly become one of the weakest fields we have seen so far this season. Still, we will need to find some cheap players to round out our DFS lineups. Below, I present to you four of my favorite options priced under $7,500 on DraftKings this week.
Kyle Stanley, $7,400
Last week, Stanley stuck 86.1% of the greens at TPC Scottsdale, tying Andrew Putnam and winner Brooks Koepka for most at the event. Also, he ranked T6 in SGT2G and T5 in SG APP during this T36 finish, and has now made it to the weekend in six of his last seven starts. Plus, over his last 12 rounds, Stanley ranks third in SG APP, 11th in SGT2G, fourth in GIR and third in bogeys avoided. This type of ball striking is unheard of from a player this cheap. Not only should this strong form get him through the cut, but Stanley also has top-20 upside in this weak field.
Including the 2019 U.S. Open that was played at Pebble Beach Golf Club, Stanley has a 4-6 record at the seaside venue.
Andrew Putnam, $7,400
After carding a T21 at The American Express, Putnam finished T7th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, behind some strong iron play and par four scoring. On top of ranking T1 in greens founds, the 32-year-old ranked T3 in SG on the par fours and now ranks fourth in the stat when we compare all of these golfers’ last eight rounds on TOUR. Over this time, Putnam also ranks sixth in total strokes gained and third in bogeys avoided.
He missed the cut in his first two appearances at Pebble Beach, but has proceeded through the cut in his last two. If Putnam can in anyway replicate his form from last week in Scottsdale, he should smash value at his cheap price tag and record at least a top-30 finish at Pebble Beach.
Jim Furyk, $7,400
Furyk spends most of his time on the Champions TOUR nowadays, but he will be returning to the PGA level this week to tee it up at Pebble Beach. He absolutely loves this par 72, making 17 of 20 cuts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, including eight top-20 finishes. He also provided a T28 at the 2019 U.S. Open here and ranks 12th in career total strokes gained at Pebble Beach Golf Club.
Additionally, The 50-year-old is having a tremendous season on the Champions TOUR with a pair of wins and no finishes worse than T13 in seven starts. He also has played on the weekend in his last two PGA events. While the old man may not seem like the coolest pick, Furyk is an excellent value for both cash games and GPPs at only $7,400.
Michael Thompson, $7,200
Before missing the cut last week in Arizona, Thompson had made eight in a row with four top-25 finishes in his previous four starts. He ranks eighth in total strokes gained across his last 12 rounds. While his 3-8 record at Pebble Beach isn’t appealing, it is worth noting he finished inside the top 20 twice in those three made cuts.
The 35-year-old also has positive putting splits on POA grass. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Thompson’s +300 odds to post a top-20 finish and +7500 odds to win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am are tied for the best off all the golfer’s priced under $8,000 this week. He is an excellent bounce-back candidate and Thompson could end up carrying a low ownership with a missed cut in his last start.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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