The NBA is the Wild West right now given COVID-19 and the league’s health protocols, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to be had. We sit at 42-35 on the season for article plays and look to get the week started right on Monday.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting on a Cavs vs. Rockets game is really getting down and dirty, but let’s look at this strictly through the numbers. One of these teams is 3-0 straight up and against the spread over their past three games, winning all three as underdogs. One of those wins, as an 11.5-point dog, was the third-largest moneyline upset of the season. The other team is on an 11-game losing streak, going 1-10 ATS during that streak, and coming off a 49-point loss on Sunday. I think you know which team is which. Houston’s season is falling apart, and the Cavs somehow have gotten hot over the last week. The Rockets' past four games have all been double-digit losses, including a 16-point loss in Cleveland last week. The wrong team is favored.
Fading the Jazz is pretty ugly right about now, but we have nothing against Utah winning the game here. Despite this dominant run by the Jazz, they haven’t been getting off to good starts, going just 2-8 1Q ATS over the past 10. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are a solid 10-6 1Q ATS at home, and worthy of keeping this game close due to some mismatches.
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson OVER 26.5 points (-110)
One of those mismatches is Zion, who has been a force in the paint this season. Utah has played a different style this season, and the team has actually been susceptible to allowing points in the paint, despite the presence of Rudy Gobert. Zion faced them twice this season in January, finishing those games with 32 and 27 points on a combined 23-of-33 from the field and 12-of-16 from the line. Williamson had a tremendous month of February and has cashed the over on 26.5 points in eight of his past 12 games.
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