The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
The DraftKings Call 811 Before You Dig 200 presented by Arizona 811 slate locks at 5:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
1. Ty Gibbs ($8,900) - If Gibbs can win his first ever Xfinity race at a road course, then he can win his second race in his first Xfinity race at an oval. In his three ARCA/K&N races at Phoenix, Gibbs has finished first, second, and third and he has led 227 of 358 laps.
2. AJ Allmendinger ($10,400) - This is a different week for Allmendinger. DFS players are used to seeing Allmendinger at road courses, plate tracks and intermediate tracks, but not short tracks. In the Cup Series, Martinsville and Phoenix were two of his best tracks. These tracks have flat-banked corners that require heavy braking — slightly similar to braking patterns at road courses.
3. Justin Allgaier ($12,000) - Phoenix is Allgaier’s best track. In 2019, he beat a solid field in the fall race to qualify for the championship. Allgaier was on his way to winning the 2020 spring race before a galaxy brain pit strategy call ended their chances.
4. Brandon Jones ($9,500) - When an Xfinity driver flat out beats Kyle Busch, DFS players better take notice. Jones won the spring Phoenix race and had the fourth-highest driver rating in the fall race.
5. Austin Cindric ($11,200) - At the beginning of 2020, Cindric was still considered a road course expert, but then he won a handful of intermediate track races. Going into the championship at Phoenix, no one considered it to be a good track for him. It turns out his car was amazing, and Cindric was the only driver capable of passing for the lead.
6. Harrison Burton ($10,800) - JGR was strong at Phoenix last season. Burton’s driver rating ranked was fourth in the spring race and seventh in the fall race. His new crew chief, Jason Ratcliff, built some very fast race cars for Chirstopher Bell at Phoenix in past Xfinty races.
7. Noah Gragson ($11,600) - Last year, Gragson was a top-five driver at Phoenix depending on how the restarts went. In the spring, good restarts led to Gragson surprisingly leading laps. In the fall, Gragson chose to restart on the bottom groove several times, and each time he lost positions to the freight train of top-tier cars running in the PJ1.
8. Ryan Sieg ($8,600) - Last fall at Phoenix, Sieg had a mechanical issue near the end of stage 2. Before that disaster, Sieg had a streak of finishes 13th or better at Phoenix. He’s starting in the back because he got loose on the apron last week and destroyed his car on the infield grass.
9. JJ Yeley ($6,700) - This week Yeley will handle the Rick Ware No. 17 car duties. This is Yeley’s hometown track, and his Phoenix numbers in decent equipment are not bad. From 2016 to 2019, his average finish is 19th. His equipment this year might be better than the cars he drove during that span, and the field is significantly weaker.
10. Daniel Hemric ($9,700) - There seems to be two outcomes to a Hemric race. He earns a DNF or he’s a runner up. In 179 NASCAR starts, all in top-tier equipment, Hemric has zero wins. To put it in perspective, Brandon Jones’ first win was race 178.
11. Riley Herbst ($10,100) - This season is not going as planned, but it’s not surprising to see Herbst struggle. He bought a top-notch Xfinity ride last season and was routinely the worst of the top-tier cars. Here we are again. Even if Herbst cleans up the mistakes and bad luck, he has not shown he can lead races. Fortunately for DFS players, he doesn’t need to lead right now, but he has to finish and he’s not finishing.
12. Josh Berry ($7,600) - The JR Motorsports No. 8 car earned two top-five finishes at Phoenix in 2019 with two different drivers (Ryan Truex and Zane Smith). What was the constant? Crew chief Taylor Moyer. Phoenix may not perfectly align with Berry’s late model, short track strengths, but it’s closer than Las Vegas and Homestead, and Berry was a top-10 driver in those races.
13. Justin Haley ($9,200) - Believe it or not, Haley was one of the championship four at Phoenix last season. The NBC championship race focuses only on the championship contenders, yet Haley was never on the broadcast. That goes to show how insignificant he was in that race.
14. Myatt Snider ($8,200) - Before he suffered significant hood damage on pit road, Snider was grossly underperforming in an RCR car at Las Vegas. Snider finished 14th and 18th in RCR equipment at Phoenix last season.
15. Michael Annett ($7,900) - There were high hopes for Annett last season. The Xfinity field was watered down and Annett was set to finish in the top 10 every week, but that didn’t happen. The field might be stronger this season, but it doesn’t seem to matter to Annett this time. He’s looking like the top-10 car that was expected last season.
16. Jeb Burton ($7,700) - The Kaulig cars have taken a step forward and Burton is finally able to put his talent on display. While this makes a great story for regular race fans, it’s hard for Burton to score fantasy points starting up front. He remains a contrarian play.
17. Brett Moffitt ($8,400) - Ty Dillon ran Moffit into the wall last week, ending what would have easily been Moffitt’s fourth top-15 finish of the season. The Our Motorsports car is headed in the right direction. Moffitt finished 19th in both races last season, and should be a 10th to 15th place car this weekend.
18. David Starr ($5,300) - His near 13th-place finish at Homestead was a mirage. He can’t do that again because he didn’t do it the first time. This week, Starr is back in the No. 61 car and Whataburger is back on the hood. This is not a top-20 car, but it’s close to 20th.
19. Loris Hezemans ($5,700) - It’s a sub-$6,000 driver that’s not going to park. That’s great, but can the 2019 Euro NASCAR champion complete the race and can this Reaume car finish the race? It can’t be any worse than rostering a Mike Harmon car.
20. Blaine Perkins ($4,700) - Maybe $5,700 is too much for a Euro NASCAR racer. How about $4,700 for an inexperienced racer in good equipment starting 29th. Perkins earned three ARCA West wins last season, but suffered a mechanical failure in his race at Phoenix.
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