The Canadiens are coming off a close 2-1 loss to Calgary two nights ago and meet them again here on Saturday. Montreal has shown some life of late — landing two blow-out wins in their past four games — and they’ve also gained points in four of their past five games. The Canadiens are showing some solid positive regression signs and rank second in xGF% (expected goals) to Calgary’s 14th. With Carey Price ($7,200) also playing well, I like getting on Montreal here.
The Sabres stink, but Taylor Hall ($5,300) has at least been a consistent point producer for Buffalo. He’s off his usual point-per-game pace, but has six points in his past 10 games and faces a Penguins team that is ranked 22nd in penalty-kill efficiency. The Sabres, for all their woes, do have decent special teams and also carry the fifth-best power play in the league. It’s a good spot for Hall to add to his totals, especially if the penalties flow early in this game.
Top Line Stacks
St. Louis Blues vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Ryan O’Reilly ($5,900) — Vladimir Tarasenko ($5,200) — Jordan Kyrou ($4,400)
The Blues’ offense has been rolling of late, and they come into this second game against Vegas averaging 4.28 goals over their past seven games. Vegas has also been a decent fantasy target for opposing skaters of late, allowing four or more goals in four of their past seven games. With goalie Marc Andre-Fleury (COVID-19) now scratched, the Blues will also likely be getting a shot at rookie Logan Thompson ($7,100) in net. The Blues’ top line has seen Tarasenko added to it recently, and the Russian scored his first goal of the season in the first game against Vegas. There’s been no grace period for Tarasenko as he’s been placed right into top-six minutes and played over 20 minutes in the first meeting with Vegas— which is great for DFS purposes.
With Tarasenko and O’Reilly playing alongside each other, both at even strength and on the power play, you get a pretty powerful stacking combo here against a Vegas team that seems destined to get into some shootouts in the short term until their goalie situation gets settled. With O’Reilly having scored 13 points over his past 10 games and averaging 12.0 DKFP over that span, he and the cheap Kyrou make for a good value combo with the newly returned Tarasenko riding shotgun.
Superstar to Target
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets ($8,800)
After going pointless for three games, Matthews has now grabbed four points in two games and leads the league with 21 goals. Any worry about a lingering injury to his wrist can seemingly be ignored now, and his DraftKings price is actually pretty palatable tonight, with him back under $9K. While trying to fit in the Oilers studs can sometimes be a bit of a chore, Matthews and Mitch Marner ($7,900) are a bit less expensive here and have a good matchup against Winnipeg, which allows the fourth-most shots against, per game. The Jets have been riding Connor Hellebuyck ($6,800) and his great play in net of late, but Toronto has carried the action most of the series thus far. Regardless, Matthews comes in averaging 4.3 SOG per game and 19.6 DKFP points per game, over his past 10 starts despite having four games with no points mixed into that span. Matthews makes for a great pay-up option tonight in a game that carries the biggest implied goal total on the slate.
Value on Offense
Travis Konecny, Philadelphia Flyers vs. Washington Capitals ($4,600)
Konecny returned last week for Philly and has been inserted back into a top-six role, which has also seen him get solid minutes on the Flyers’ PP1 for now. He comes in with six points over his past five games, three of which have come on the power play. The Flyers’ top-six forwards continue to be solid targets for DFS purposes as the team is 10th in goals per game, and Konecny and center/linemate Kevin Hayes ($5,200) are priced well under the Flyers’ other top-line players for DFS purposes. Washington has allowed the 11th-most goals per game and makes for a decent target here in a game that has a solid 6 O/U attached to it.
Eeli Tolvanen, Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning ($3,400)
Tolvanen has been a rare bright spot for the Predators this year as the 21-year-old has been a solid producer despite playing mainly in a third-line role. He has seen regular time with the Preds’ PP1 of late though and now has seven points over his past 10 games, four of which have come on the power play. With him averaging over 2.0 SOG per game and the Preds with no reason to limit his minutes in what is essentially a lost season, he makes for a good extreme value target tonight and going forward if his price stays down.
Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames ($7,200)
Price comes into this game with a 3-0-1 record over his past four starts. After a rough patch, the veteran has gotten his game back on track over the last week or so, and he has now posted save percentages of .958 or better in each of those past four games. Price is a nightly target when he’s this locked in and becomes a near must-play when priced this cheaply against a team like Calgary, which sits just 21st in goals per game. The Canadiens are currently -114 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and Price’s salary makes him a great value play in net tonight for all formats.
Kevin Lankinen, Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers ($7,100)
Lankinen has also been playing well and bounced back nicely in his last start after a couple of losses to post 18.6 DKFP in a 28-save win against Dallas. The rookie has simply been cruising this year and is averaging 17.6 DKFP over his past 10 games. He does carry some risk in this spot as the Panthers are a solid team, but also only rank 18th thus far in xGF%. The Hawks are +143 underdogs here so keeping Lankinen to GPP lineups only makes sense, but he’s got good upside in a very winnable game for Chicago.
Value on Defense
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs ($3,900)
Despite only landing one point in his past 10 games, Morrissey continues to be a good value for DFS purposes. The blueliner has averaged 2.2 SOG and 1.8 blocked shots over his past 10 starts and comes into this game off a great effort against Toronto, as he hit both the SOG and blocked shot bonus on the same night. The Leafs have been firing the puck a lot of late and with Morrissey playing 24 minutes or more in most games, his stats in the peripheral categories make him an outstanding value here and on almost every slate moving forward until his price comes up. If you get any offensive production from him here, he could end up being the best point-per-dollar play on the slate.
Jeff Petry, Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames ($6,200)
Petry comes into this game showing a bit of an uptick in his production of late. The Canadiens’ power-play specialist and their best all-around defenseman has nine points over his past 10 games and is averaging 12.2 DKFP over that same span. The Canadiens have finally shown some life on offense of late, and Petry has now potted four power-play points over his past eight games. The uptick on special teams for Montreal is key here, and they take on a Flames team that is just mediocre on the penalty kill and has allowed the 11th-most scoring chances against this year. Petry’s a good pay-up target tonight at a reasonable price.
Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia Flyers vs. Washington Capitals ($4,700)
Gostisbehere has been on a Gostis-tear for the Flyers of late, as he comes in with six points and averaging 12.2 DKFP per game over his past 10 starts. Those kinds of numbers would normally put him in elite status in terms of the DraftKings salary tier, but he’s still not getting much respect as we can roster him at well under $5K here. The defenseman is now quarterbacking the Flyers’ PP1 and is averaging 3.5 SOG per game over the past 10 games, which puts him at nearly elite forward production in that stat. He’s a great value and a near must play if you plan on stacking any of the Flyers’ PP1 forwards here.
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