Here are some plays that jump out on DraftKings at each position for Wednesday’s 10-game NBA slate, along with some strategies unique to this slate.
Worth Paying Up For: Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards vs. Sacramento Kings ($10,400)
The point guard position is loaded at the top today, with James Harden ($10,900), Luka Doncic ($10,700) and Steph Curry ($9,800) all on the slate. Hopefully, Westbrook is the forgotten man and becomes the lowest-owned of the bunch because the matchup is a fantastic one. The Kings play at the ninth-fastest pace and are dead-last in defensive efficiency. Against point guards, in particular, they boost the fantasy points per minute by 13.37% above league average — tops in the league. On the season, Westbrook is averaging 1.43 DKFP per minute.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Tomas Satoransky, Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs ($3,800)
Man, what’s a guy have to do to get some respect on the DK streets? After Billy Donovan announced that he was making a change to the starting lineup, Satoransky has started the last two games and contributed 31.5 DKFP and 33.5 DKFP in 31 and 26 minutes, respectively. He’s averaging 0.88 DKFP per minute, so he’s still way too cheap. The matchup is also a good one, as the Spurs boost the fantasy points per minute to point guards by 7.01% above league average. Satoransky could be morphing into the new T.J. McConnell ($5,200).
Best Bang For Your Buck Part Deux: Kevin Porter Jr., Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors ($6,800)
For the first time in Cheat Sheet history, there will be two “Best Bang For Your Buck” players. You are all witnesses. This was a late addition to the piece, but I had to include it after I saw that Victor Oladipo (rest) was ruled out for today. With John Wall, Eric Gordon and Christian Wood ($8,500; ankle) out of the lineup, Oladipo was garnering a usage rate in the mid-30s. Now, Wood is expected return after a long absence, but even if he plays, he will likely be on a minutes restriction. Most of that usage will likely go to Porter. Since being inserted into the rotation, he’s gone for 42.25 DKFP, 47.75 DKFP, 23.5 DKFP and 46.5 DKFP. He will probably be the highest-owned player on the slate, but he’s too cheap for the number of minutes and usage he will likely see.
Worth Paying Up For: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards vs. Sacramento Kings ($9,430)
As mentioned in the Westbrook blurb, the Kings play fast and eschew defense. The game environment is a juicy one and the best on the slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Wizards favored by two points with the O/U at a whopping 247 — the highest by 12 points. The ownership for players in this game will likely be high, so be wary of that. With 10 games on the slate, there should be plenty of pivots, though. With that said, Beal is the second-highest projected player on the slate. The usage rate has fallen recently, from 35.2% to 29.4%, but he’s still hoisting over 19 shots per game and contributing in every category aside from blocks. Beal is averaging 1.37 DKFP per minute and has scored at least 50.0 DKFP in 17 games with a high of 79.75 DKFP.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Sterling Brown, Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors ($4,600)
Due to all the injuries for the Rockets, Brown has started the last five games. He only averages 0.78 DKFP per minute, but he’s been averaging 33.4 minutes per game. The usage rate is low and the shooting efficiency is poor, but he chips in every category and accesses his ceiling if he does score. Over the last five games, he’s contributed 29.25 DKFP, 12.25 DKFP, 23.76 DKF, 24.0 DKFP and 17.25 DKFP. This is more of a minutes play than anything else, hoping that he trips into some counting stats.
Worth Paying Up For: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies ($9,700)
Editor’s Note: Heat SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable to play tonight vs. the Grizzlies.
Butler has been on quite the heater recently. Over the last seven games, he’s put up 53.0 DKFP, 62,75 DKFP, 52.75 DKFP, 62.5 DKFP, 51.25 DKFP, 59.5 DKFP and 62.0 DKFP. Some of those games were with Bam Adebayo ($8,400) and some were without. Adebayo garners a 24% usage rate but it hasn’t mattered for Butler. He’s on fire, which is appropriate for a Heat player. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Grizzlies favored by one point, so Butler should play his full allotment of minutes. The O/U is only 219.5, which pales in comparison to many of the other games on this slate, but the matchup is pristine. The Grizzlies boost the fantasy points per minute to small forwards by 21.77% above league average — the most generous in the league.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Marcus Morris Sr., Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks ($4,100)
Morris displaced Nicolas Batum ($3,900) in the starting lineup last game and played 31 minutes. He produced 29.5 DKFP. On the season, he’s averaging 0.83 DKFP per minute. Morris is out there to hit shots in order to alleviate pressure from Kawhi Leonard ($8,700) and Paul George ($7,900), so the opportunities to score should be plentiful. He garners a usage rate of around 20% and attempted 11 shots last game.
Worth Paying Up For: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers ($11,000)
The projection for Giannis is the lowest that I’ve seen in a while. I still can’t figure out why. The 76ers play at the seventh-fastest pace and they are second in defensive efficiency, but Joel Embiid (knee) is out. Is it the combo of Tony Bradley ($4,000) and Dwight Howard ($5,800) protecting the rim the factor? As a result, I was going to fade him and go with Domantas Sabonis ($9,400) or Tobias Harris ($8,400), but I just can’t do it. You’re paying a premium for Giannis and, if Sabonis matches Giannis, then those who rostered Sabonis have the leg up. The Giannis ceiling is unmatched, though. So, it comes down to ownership percentages and value plays but, if the ownership is low due to the low number spewed out by the projection models, then I’m in. On the season, Giannis is averaging 1.68 DKFP per minute and has gone for 70.75 DKFP and 76.25 DKFP in his most recent games.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Daniel Theis, Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,100)
Over the last three games, Theis has produced 39.75 DKFP, 1.5 DKFP and 33.5 DKFP. The outlier game occurred when he only played seven minutes against a Rockets team that played small. There will be no small-ball from the Cavs. In addition, Tristan Thompson (health protocols) is still out, so the minutes should be secure. The last time these teams met, Theis went for 34.5 DKFP.
Worth Paying Up For: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Charlotte Hornets ($10,800)
Duh. Water is wet. The sky is blue. Taxes are always due. Add Jokic producing DKFP to things that never change. On the season, Jokic is averaging 1.61 DKFP per minute and has gone for 69.0 DKFP, 58.0 DKFP, 62.75 DKFP, 45.5 DKFP, 74.5 DKFP and 77.0 DKFP in the last six games. He’s the No. 1 fantasy player on a per-game basis in season-long leagues and has been one of the best players for DFS, as the floor has been high with plenty of ceiling games.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Richaun Holmes, Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards ($6,700)
There’s so much to like here for Holmes. The game has the highest total on the slate, the Wizards play at the fastest pace and they are the most generous to centers, boosting the fantasy points per minute by 17.64% above league average. Over the last seven games, Holmes has averaged 34.1 minutes and contributed 46.75 DKFP, 30.5 DKFP, 30.25 DKFP, 39.25 DKFP, 40.25 DKFP, 38.5 DKFP and 57.75 DKFP.
Overall Lineup Strategy
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This is a really fun slate because there are tons of games with high totals and tight spreads. Ownership will likely be flat across the board. There aren’t any free squares, although I think Satoransky at $3.8K is pretty close. Porter Jr. should feast tonight, but the $6.8K price tag makes you think. With that said, there is plenty of value, with more sure to come, so a stars and scrubs lineup construction is the likely way to go, with plenty of stars to choose from.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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