After a two-year wait, the madness is finally back. They made us wait an extra day for a 16-game slate to start, but I think we’ll all take it. After having the week to thoroughly go over the board, here are my best bets for Friday’s card on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Oregon State vs. Tennessee: OSU +8.5 (-109)
The first thing I ran to bet when spreads started coming out was Oregon State. I got it at 8.5, and it dropped as low as 7, where I was still ready to write it up. We got a gift, and the line moved back — and that +350 moneyline is also worth a sprinkle. This is a 12-seed upset I have in my bracket, and love the way the Beavers are playing right now. Oregon State enters the tournament as Pac-12 champs, winning and covering all three tournament games as underdogs (a combined 22.5 points). OSU is on a 10-1 ATS run entering this matchup, and are winners of seven of their last nine games outright. Six of those seven wins were as dogs, and the other was as just a slight one-point favorite. Analytics like Tennessee more than I do. The Vols just don’t pass the eye test, and have struggled away from home.
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Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: UNC -1.5 (-112)
The Badgers haven’t won a big game all season, and I can’t ignore that here. Wisconsin is 16-6 when favored in games, and doesn’t have too bad of a loss to complain about. The Badgers are also 1-5 as a dog, with the one win at Michigan State — who they’d now be favored over. Meanwhile, Roy Williams is an astounding 29-0 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and while he has some young guards on this team, there’s also a strong collection of size and talent. It was a down year for the Heels, but they’ve proven to bring a high ceiling, and have plenty of neutral floor experience, where they’re 5-2.
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Arkansas/Oklahoma State/Texas Moneyline Parlay (-103)
If you want to go the parlay route and root for a few outright winners, this is my strongest play for the first round. It gets you near even odds on three teams I’m very confident in, and your sweat also rolls over into Saturday, when the Longhorns are scheduled to play. While I’m not totally comfortable laying the points with any of these three-seeds or four-seeds, I’d be very surprised to see an outright loss from any. We have an Elite Eight ticket on Texas and Sweet 16 ticket on Oklahoma State from the futures article.
Arkansas 1st Half Team Total: OVER 40.5 (-117)
If you don’t want to lay a moneyline parlay, or just want another way to back the Razorbacks, I don’t see how the heck Colgate is going to slow them down. The Raiders grade out as one of the top teams in analytics in college hoops, but they’ve played absolutely nobody, and already don’t have a good defense. Arkansas is averaging 82.4 points per game, which ranks fifth in the country. Good luck to Colgate on stopping the Hogs.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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