Both of these offenses head into this game screaming with confidence. The Rangers are coming off a 9-0 drubbing of the Flyers and have now scored 17 goals in three games since the return of Artemi Panarin ($7,700) to the lineup. The Capitals have scored three or more goals in six straight and are averaging 4.7 goals over that span. With New York being underrated here and the Caps now 5th in expected goal rate (xGF%), over 6.0 goals looks worth taking.
The Leafs have lost two straight games and five of their last six games, but still look to be getting a little discounted here. The Flames got a decent pop from a recent coaching change but they also got spanked by another solid offensive team in the Oilers their last time out—and now have to travel across the country to play a frustrated (and rested) Leafs team. Toronto still ranks 6th in expected goal rate on the season, despite the recent slump, and are taking on a Flames squad with poor special teams and no big offensive catalysts. The ML on the Leafs looks like a good number here.
Top Line Stacks
St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks
Ryan O’Reilly ($6,000) — David Perron ($6,800) — Zach Sanford ($4,200)
With a bunch of big names on this slate that we’ll want to pay up for (my favorite is below) we’ll certainly need to find at least a small discount in any top-line stack tonight and the Blues may present a good buy-low opportunity. St. Louis has been dismal as a team over their last few starts and comes in having lost five straight games, having scored just twice in their last two games as a team. Still, the Blues’ offense hasn’t really been the issue of late and they’ve proven capable of big games against bad teams this year. The Sharks also provide the perfect opponent for their top-6 to go off against and it was only a couple of weeks ago San Jose allowed seven goals against the Blues in a 7-6 thriller.
While STL has shifted their lines around a lot this year, David Perron has remained their most consistent forward and is still averaging a point per game over his last 10 games despite going pointless over his last two. Perron also averages 3.5 SOG per game should be paired on the PP and at even strength with a solid setup man in O’Reilly here, who has eight assists and three goals in his last 10 games. Sanford provides good upside as well and is averaging 2.4 SOG over his last 10 games, giving this line plenty of upside and a nice floor. San Jose’s allowed the third-most goals and shots against per game and should provide the perfect tonic for this line to get off the mat and provide some good fantasy return.
Superstar to Target
Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers ($8,300)
As I mentioned above, the offenses for both WAS and NYR are confident right now, so we have perhaps the perfect storm for a good shootout tonight. The goals have also started to flow for Ovechkin personally as he enters this game with six goals over his last 10 games and goals in four straight. He’s averaging 4.7 SOG per game over that same span and is part of a WAS power play that has moved itself into the sixth-best position in power-play efficiency. When we’re looking at this slate there’s a couple of other big wingers here who stick out, but Ovechkin’s been the one carrying his team of late and makes for a nice discount off of Max Pacioretty ($8,500). The Rangers’ goaltending has also been pretty hot or cold lately with Alex Georgiev ($7,400) posting save percentages of under .900 in two of his last three starts. Riding the hot hand with Ovy here seems like the play tonight as the Caps and Rangers have lots of nice shootout potential for DFS.
Value on Offense
Kevin Labanc, San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues ($4,600)
Labanc has been heating up of late and comes into this game against the struggling Blues averaging 10.9 DKFP over his last 10 games. An integral part of the Sharks’ first line, he also offers us the easiest and most cost efficient way to get exposure to their L1, which has been producing a lot of goals of late. While he’s been a solid setup man most of his career, Labanc is shooting the puck more of late (2.4 SOG over his last 10 games) and faces a Blues team here who is 25th in penalty-kill efficiency. He makes for a good value target and good stacking option with any of the Sharks’ other PP1 forwards or D-men (most notably Kane or Couture).
Cody Glass, Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings ($3,300)
Glass has been filling in as the team’s number one center of late, and has been getting a chance to play alongside scorers like Max Pacioretty ($8,500) and Mark Stone ($6,700). That kind of offensive role is obviously significant and should get our attention for DFS purposes. The 21-year-old only has 10 points in 22 games this season but considering his limited role he’s done well to post that kind of production. Assuming Chandler Stephenson (questionable) sits again here, Glass makes for a good stacking partner with either of the Knights’ big wingers and a good value play on his own as he’s expected to get more PP1 exposure going forward.
Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens vs. Vancouver Canucks ($8,200)
While the Canadiens have only been treading water of late in the W-L column, they still enter this game tonight as the biggest favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook at -182. Price wasn’t great his last time out but he’s looked solid over his last five or so games. He’s now produced 12 or more DKFP in five of his last six starts and is a solid pay-up option tonight. Jake Allen ($8,000) is also a fine target here if he starts as he brings in a .922 save percentage on the season and would likely be a little lesser owned as well. Vancouver hasn’t scored more than three goals in a game in five straight heading into tonight so the under may be worth a look here too.
Cal Petersen, Los Angeles Kings vs. Vegas Golden Knights ($6,700)
There’s plenty of big names on this five-game slate, so looking for some extreme value in net tonight is certainly one method of roster building that could pay off. Petersen has played well of late for the Kings and looks ready to take over the starter duties for the time being. The 26-year-old has hit the DraftKings save bonus in two of his last three starts and brings a .922 save percentage on the season into this game. The Kings are +150 underdogs to the Knights here on DraftKings Sportsbook, but with Petersen’s efficiency of late—and his cheap price—it could be a spot where he pays off for you even if L.A. loses the game.
Value on Defense
Noah Hanifin, Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs ($2,800)
There’s honestly not a ton of great values kicking around at defense on this slate so why not go as cheap as possible with Hanifin, who has started to pick things up of late. The Flames’ defenseman was getting time with the PP1 in his last outing and has now scored four points in his last six games (three goals). Since picking up some power-play time he’s been far busier with his shot as well, posting two or more SOG now in five of his last six games. If there’s an area where the Leafs are still vulnerable to attack, it’s on special teams where they rank just 21st in penalty-kill efficiency. Hanifin seems to be finding some favor with the new coach, so riding him as a nice punt play with upside at these levels isn’t a bad idea at all.
John Carlson, Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers ($6,600)
The Capitals have been streaking of late and they now rank second in goals per game and sixth in power-play efficiency. Paying up for a power-play quarterback on a team playing this well on the offensive side is never a bad idea and Carlson has certainly proven over time that he has the upside to pay off for us, even at these heightened salary levels. He’s now recorded 14.9 DKFP or more in five of his last six starts and is on a point-per-game pace over his last six games. The Rangers have done well on special teams this year but pairing Carlson with Ovechkin ($8,300) here and relying on the Caps’ studs doesn’t seem like a bad plan of attack tonight, especially against a weak goalie. The Caps’ power-play has plenty of upside right now.
Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames ($5,500)
Even though they’ve been slumping a bit, the Leafs’ power-play is still one to consider whenever they are on the slate. Rielly makes for a good pay-down option off the top few names tonight and he’s played well of late, averaging 10.1 DKFP over his last 10 starts, which is a full point over his season-long average. A huge minute muncher for the Leafs, Rielly’s become more proficient in the blocked shot arena this year as well and is averaging 1.8 BS over his last 10 games. The Flames rank 15th in penalty-kill percentage, so they aren’t exactly a dominant special teams group. Regardless of your plan of attack tonight, Rielly makes for a nice upper-tier value here.
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