Happy Day-After-Deadline Day! After a mini five-game slate on Thursday, the NBA comes back with a fun, jam-packed 11-game slate with a couple of nationally-televised affairs. With so much from, let’s get right down to it and survey DraftKings Sportsbook for some player props, totals and sides to bet. You can follow me on Twitter (@KennyDucey) for any late adds.
If we’ve learned anything over the past few years, it’s not to fade the Bucks in Milwaukee. Since 2018, they’re 61-40-2 against the spread in home games, and so far in 2021 have gone 13-10 ATS in this spot. The Celtics, meanwhile, come into this one an awful 8-16 ATS on the road, and the losers of five of their last six. Though Boston appears to have kept this game on Wednesday against the Bucks close on the surface, it was a game dominated by Milwaukee the entire way. The Bucks were able to hit on over 45% of their threes, and out-rebounded the Celtics 46-38. Still without Tristan Thompson, nothing will change for Boston on the interior. I expect the C’s to get dominated once again here.
One of the best spots to take the Miami Heat this season has been on the second night of a back-to-back, where they’ve gone 4-2 ATS. That’s what happens when you have one of the best coaches in the NBA and a defense capable of slowing even the strongest offensive attack.
The Hornets don’t have one of those, losing LaMelo Ball to a season-ending injury two games ago. Though their last win was a big one, by 23 points, it came against the awful Rockets defense. Prior to that, Charlotte etched out just 100 points against a strong Spurs side. I’d expect more of that here, considering this defense has been the sixth-best in the NBA over the past 10 games. Even if Jimmy Butler doesn’t play in this one, Miami’s defensive rating is still 111 with him off the floor this year. That’s good.
Speaking of defenses, can we talk about the Atlanta Hawks? They’re fifth in defensive efficiency over the last 10 games — of which they’ve won eight — and fifth in rebounding rate over that span as well at 53%.
We know two things to be true about the Warriors: They’re awful on offense, particularly without Stephen Curry, and they’re really bad inside as well, ranking 24th in rebounding this year. So, I ask you, how do they keep up with the hardworking Hawks here? How do they respond when the fourth-best three-point defense closes out on the perimeter and forces them to drive inside on the shot-blocking machine that is Clint Capela?
The answer is, they don’t. This should be a blowout on paper, considering how puzzled Golden State has looked on offense without Curry. To make matters worse, Draymond Green’s status here is up in the air as well.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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