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Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for March 3

Stan Son gives his top lineup advice at each position for Wednesday’s fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings, which starts at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Houston Rockets v Toronto Raptors Photo by Scott Audette/NBAE via Getty Images

Here are some plays that jump out on DraftKings at each position for Wednesday’s ten-game NBA slate, along with some strategies unique to this slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $600K Shootaround [150K to 1st]


Point Guard

Worth Paying Up For: James Harden, Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets ($11,000)

REVENGE! I kid, sort of. I’m not into narratives but, REVENGE! Alright, I’ll stop. Harden is coming off an 80.0 DKFP game against the Kings in which he triple-doubled and only garnered a usage rate of 26.4%. Prior to that game, the usage rate was 39.2%, so he can produce in a variety of ways.

Now, in his previous four games, Harden went for 47.75 DKFP, 43.25 DKFP, 70.75 DKFP and 67.25 DKFP. He played over 40 minutes in the last two games, while the 40.0 DKFP games were blowouts, one a win and the other a loss. That is the only concern here, as the Nets are favored by 9.5 points according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

On the season, Harden is averaging 1.47 DKFP per minute. If the game remains competitive, then a ceiling performance is well within the range of outcomes.

Best Bang For Your Buck: Terence Davis, Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons ($3,400)

The Raptors have been ravaged by COVID, as OG Anunoby, Malachi Flynn, Patrick McCaw, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet are all out. As a result, Davis is going to get run, probably in the mid-to-high 20 minute range. On the season, he’s averaging 0.86 DKFP per minute and garners a respectable 20.7% usage rate when on the court. Davis has played over 20 minutes in four games this season. He’s produced 22.5 DKFP, 20.0 DKFP, 31.5 DKFP and 25.25 DKFP in those contests.


Shooting Guard

Worth Paying Up For: Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans ($9,500)

This game has the highest total on the slate. New Orleans plays at the 17th-fastest pace, but Chicago is fifth. Defensively, the Pelicans are 29th in defensive efficiency.

On the season, LaVine is averaging 1.28 DKFP per minute and garners a 31.1% usage rate. He hoists 19.6 shots per game. These two teams met in early February and LaVine went bonkers for 64.75 DKFP and had a 38.5% usage rate.

Best Bang For Your Buck: Bruce Brown, Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets ($5,300)

Over the last five games, Brown has gone for 29.5 DKFP, 40.0 DKFP, 27.5 DKFP, 27.25 DKFP and 34.25 DKFP. Kevin Durant (health protocols) was out for all of those games and will be out for this one, as well. To be fair, Brown went for less than 20.0 DKFP in four of the other starts, so this is not a slam dunk by any means. With that said, maybe it took some time for the team to figure out his role with Durant out, and the recent trend is promising. The matchup is a good one as the Rockets boost the fantasy points per minute to opposing small forwards by 6.96% above league average.


Small Forward

Worth Paying Up For: Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons ($6,700)

In 55 minutes with VanVleet, Siakam and Anunoby off the court this season, Powell has seen his usage rate bump to 35.7%. That’s three percent more than Kyle Lowry ($8,100). Powell has scored at least 40.0 DKFP in six games this season and is averaging 0.93 DKFP per minute. He has started 21 games and played 33.1 minutes in those contests, producing 21.4 points, 2.8 three-pointers, 3.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.4 steals with a 21.5% usage rate.

Best Bang For Your Buck: Talen Horton-Tucker, Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings ($3,400)

No LeBron James (rest) or Anthony Davis (Achilles) in this one and Kyle Kuzma ($5,800; heel) may also be out. While in the G League, the Lakers put the ball in Horton-Tucker’s hands and wanted him to be the alpha. He broke defenders down in isolation situations and learned how to navigate pick-and-roll action. In the preseason, we all were witnesses to what he’s capable of. Obviously, with James and Davis on the floor his role changed, but he still was put in similar actions from time-to-time. Well, now we should see him thrust into that alpha role once more. With James and Davis off the court this season, Horton-Tucker has seen a 7.0% usage bump to a team-high 27.9%. The sample size has been 99 minutes. The Kings are the worst team from a defensive efficiency perspective and boost the fantasy points per minute to opposing small forwards by 12.02% above league average. He is a lock and load.


Power Forward

Worth Paying Up For: Kristaps Porzingis, Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($8,200)

On the season, Porzingis is averaging 1.24 DKFP per minute. The production has been all over the map as he’s gone for fewer than 30.0 DKFP five times, but also has two 50-burgers and a high of 61.75 DKFP for the season. The matchup with the Thunder is a good one as they boost the fantasy points per minute to centers by 5.83% above league average. Luka Doncic ($10,900; back) is also questionable for this game. If he’s out, then the likelihood of a ceiling performance increases because Porzingis’ usage rate gets a bump of 4.3% to 32.3% with Doncic off the court.

Best Bang For Your Buck: Markieff Morris, Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings ($3,700)

Morris has started the last four games and played 28, 22, 24 and 34 minutes. He’s produced 24.25 DKFP, 12.0 DKFP, 30.0 DKFP and 25.5 DKFP, respectively. The Lakers are going to be shorthanded in this one and his offensive capabilities are going to be needed. If Marc Gasol ($3,800; health protocols) plays, the minutes will likely be in the mid-20s, but if he’s absent, then we should see another 30-plus minutes of work for Morris. The Kings are generous to the power forward position, as they boost the fantasy points per minute of opponents by 6.41% above league average.


Center

Worth Paying Up For: Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks ($10,300)

Vucevic is averaging 1.43 DKFP per minute. Over the last three games, the usage rate has been 32.7%, 36.4% and 36.6%. He’s gone for 62.75 DKFP, 56.0 DKFP and 47.0 DKFP in those games. On the season, he’s scored at least 50.0 DKFP in 17 games and has gone over 70.0 DKFP twice. The Hawks are 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Best Bang For Your Buck: Justin Patton, Houston Rockets vs. Brooklyn Nets ($4,000)

Over the last two games, Patton has played 26 and 32 minutes. He’s contributed 20.25 DKFP and 25.5 DKFP. Patton will grab rebounds and rack up defensive stats, but what’s really enticing is that he can shoot from downtown. He’s attempted nine combined three-pointers over the last two games.


Overall Lineup Strategy

The bubble-less NBA is turning into the Wild West ...just like NFL and MLB were. So first and foremost, following the news is always a must in the NBA, but now it’s even more important. Make sure to follow @dklive on Twitter and download the DK Live app to stay up-to-date with all the latest news.

There is tons of value on this slate — particularly with Toronto and Los Angeles — so stars and scrubs is going to be the route most go with. The difference will be choosing the right studs.


Injury Report

OUT

  • Caris LeVert (kidney)
  • T. J. Warren (foot)
  • Andre Drummond (rest)
  • Kevin Love (calf)
  • Larry Nance Jr. (finger)
  • Blake Griffin (rest)
  • Killian Hayes (hip)
  • Frank Jackson (illness)
  • Jahlil Okafor (knee)
  • Delon Wright (groin)
  • O. G. Anunoby (health protocols)
  • Pascal Siakam (health protocols)
  • Fred VanVleet (health protocols)
  • Kevin Durant (hamstring)
  • David Nwaba (wrist)
  • Christian Wood (ankle)
  • Otto Porter Jr. (back)
  • Devonte’ Graham (knee)
  • Malik Beasley (suspension)
  • D’Angelo Russell (knee)
  • De’Andre Hunter (knee)
  • Cole Anthony (rib)
  • James Ennis (calf)
  • Aaron Gordon (ankle)
  • Hamidou Diallo (groin)
  • George Hill (thumb)
  • C. J. McCollum (foot)
  • Jusuf Nurkic (wrist)
  • Anthony Davis (calf)
  • LeBron James (ankle)
  • Tyrese Haliburton (calf)
  • Hassan Whiteside (health protocols)

DOUBTFUL

  • Jeff Green (shoulder)
  • Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (knee)
  • Lauri Markkanen (shoulder)

QUESTIONABLE

  • Doug McDermott (mouth)
  • Taurean Prince (ankle)
  • Tobias Harris (knee)
  • Jerami Grant (quad)
  • Eric Gordon (knee)
  • Danuel House (knee)
  • Cody Zeller (hip)
  • Evan Fournier (groin)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (thumb)
  • Luka Doncic (back)
  • Buddy Hield (ankle)
  • Jabari Parker (health protocols)

PROBABLE

  • Jeremy Lamb (knee)
  • Gordon Hayward (hand)

GAME TIME DECISION

  • Cam Reddish (Achilles)
  • Darius Miller (illness)
  • Harry Giles (calf)
  • Alex Caruso (neck)
  • Marc Gasol (health protocols)
  • Kyle Kuzma (heel)

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $600K Shootaround [150K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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