The Valero Texas Open shouldn’t be overlooked with the Masters Tournament next week. Yes, Augusta National is in a class of its own, but we’ve seen longshots hit here over the past couple of seasons. Dustin Johnson has withdrawn this week, leaving Tony Finau as the favorite to win at +1100. If you’re a fan of this article, you know I’m always #TeamFinau, but not at this price.
The average winning odds over the previous five years is just under +9800, with the longest coming from Corey Conners and Andrew Landry in 2019 and 2018, respectively, at +20000. The shortest numbers came from Jimmy Walker in 2015 at +2500. These numbers should tell us, along with the Dustin Johnson WD, that this tournament is wide open. Using current form is an ideal strategy every week, but it may not be as crucial to winning here. Both Landry and Conners missed three out of their previous four cuts leading up to TPC San Antonio.
For a full course preview and key statistics breakdown, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Like I mentioned in the DraftKings Preview article, Davis should find success here with how well he’s striking the ball. His final rounds at PGA National were positive in SG: Ball-Striking, but it just seems like, throughout the Florida Swing, he couldn’t find his footing around the greens. Now, he gets a course that should suit his game much better, and if the wind kicks up, he becomes much more appealing, as he ranks 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green over his previous nine rounds classified as “Windy” by Fantasy National. He’s been flirting with finishing at the top, and now that significant win equity has left the building in the form of Dustin Johnson, the opportunity for Davis increases. As long as his short game isn’t atrocious and his ball-striking stays in shape, he should have a good shot at playing well here.
The deep-V wearing, smooth swinging big man hasn’t lost strokes with his irons in measured rounds since the ZOZO Championship back in October of last year and ranks ninth in approach over the previous 24 rounds. A top 20 at the Honda Classic came off a solid outing with his ball-striking, but he couldn’t get anything going on the greens at PGA National. Higgs is a resident of Dallas, Texas, and played his college golf at SMU — located in Dallas — so he should be familiar with the conditions this week.
Past winners like Conners, Jimmy Walker and Adam Scott are all known as being great drivers of the ball. Both Scott and Conners are also stupendous iron players, and Varner could join this illustrious group by leaning on his Off-the-Tee game, ranking 18th in SG: Off-the-Tee over the previous 24 rounds.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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