Here are some plays that jump out on DraftKings at each position for Wednesday’s 10-game NBA main slate, along with some strategies unique to this slate.
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Worth Paying Up For: James Harden, Brooklyn Nets vs. Houston Rockets ($10,900)
Harden is averaging 1.5 DKFP per minute. It seems like every time I write up a piece, that number ticks up. Last week, it was at 1.49. Crazy. Anyways, cue the sirens as we’ve got a revenge narrative. I kid, as I’m not into that narrative. He does play the Rockets for the second time since being traded to the Nets, though. In his last outing, he only went for 73 DKFP. Is that good? The Rockets play at the fifth-fastest pace so there should be plenty of possessions. Now, the Nets are favored by 12 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, so the risk of a blowout is high, but since arriving in Brooklyn, in games that had a final margin of victory of at least 10 points, Harden produced 51, 73, 80, 43.25, 54.25, 72.25, 62.5, 39.75, 61.5, and 41 DKFP. There’s variance but the ceiling games are still well within the range of outcomes.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Saben Lee, Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers ($4,300)
Killian Hayes (hip) and Dennis Smith Jr. (back) remain out, so the point guard depth chart for the Pistons is Lee at the top with Cory Joseph ($4,000) backing him up. Lee has started the last two games and played 25 and 26 minutes, contributing 25.25 and 33.75 DKFP. The usage rate has been 28.8% and 14.1%, so there will be volatility in the points department, but he’s stuffed the stat sheet in both games and provides a relatively high floor with access to ceiling games.
Worth Paying Up For: Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets vs. Houston Rockets ($9,600)
Kyrie is averaging 1.31 DKFP per minute. Over the last three games, he’s gone for 49.25, 51.75, and 58.5 DKFP. The usage rate has been robust in all three games: 30.4%, 37.4%, and 39.3%. Now he gets a matchup against a Rockets team that is fifth in pace and boosts the fantasy points per minute to shooting guards by 14.12% above league average. The last time he played Houston, he produced 40.25 DKFP despite the game being a blowout.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Hamidou Diallo, Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers ($4,600)
Diallo has played two games since arriving in Detroit. In his most recent outing, he played 27 minutes, garnered a usage rate of 24.3%, and produced 43 DKFP. The team thinks highly of him and he completely displaced Josh Jackson from the rotation. While he’s not starting yet, the minutes look like they will be there and a starting nod should be forthcoming. While with the Thunder, Diallo was averaging 1.01 DKFP per minute.
Worth Paying Up For: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics ($10,700)
Doncic has gone for 43.75 and 29 DKFP in the last two games. The sky is falling! He only played 27 and 28 minutes in those games due to blowouts so nothing to see here. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Celtics favored by only one point in this one, so he should get his normal 35 minutes of run. On the season, Doncic is averaging 1.57 DKFP per minute. He faced the Celtics back on February 23 and produced 60.5 DKFP.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks ($4,300)
The matchup isn’t a good one as the Knicks are dead-last in offensive pace and are fourth in defensive efficiency. In addition, McDaniels is only averaging 0.72 DKFP per minute on the season. With that said, he has started the last four games and seen his playing time increase in every game: 29, 33, 36, and 38 minutes. He’s contributed 21.24, 24, 21, and 39.25 DKFP. The trend may no longer be our friend today, but there’s no denying the minutes. That’s half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Worth Paying Up For: Julius Randle, New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves ($9,700)
Randle is averaging 1.26 DKFP per minute. Over the last two games, he’s only scored 32.25 and 35.5 DKFP, which is a problem considering his price tag. Prior to that, though, he went for at least 60 DKFP in four of eight games. Now he gets a matchup against a Timberwolves team that plays at the third-fastest pace and is 27th in defensive efficiency. Randle faced the Timberwolves on February 21st and went for 49 DKFP.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Kelly Olynyk, Houston Rockets vs. Brooklyn Nets ($5,200)
The Olynyk experience is always fraught with volatility. He will go on stretches producing over 40 DKFP then go for 14 the following game. You have been warned. With that said, things do look good for this matchup. The Nets boost the fantasy points per minute to centers by 6.9% above league average, with a 9.99% increase in three-pointers, an Olynyk specialty. There should be plenty of possessions as well since Houston is fifth in pace and the Nets are 13th. Since arriving in Houston, Olynyk has started two games and played 25 and 34 minutes, contributing 34.5 and 44.75 DKFP.
Worth Paying Up For: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers ($8,200)
Over the last four games, Bam has gone for 54.25, 33.5, 59.75, 36.5, and 54 DKFP. If the SATs taught me anything, it’s that we should expect Bam to score 30.5 in this one. Bam is an offensive force while being a defensive maven. The only thing he doesn’t do is make it rain from downtown. The matchup is an excellent one as the Pacers boost the fantasy points per minute to centers by 12.03% above league average. The Heat had a double-dip with the Pacers six games ago and Bam went for 41.5 and 54 DKFP.
Best Bang For Your Buck: Nerlens Noel, New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves ($4,900)
Mitchell Robinson is out so Noel will get the bulk of the minutes at center. Over the last two games, he’s played 30 and 31 minutes, producing 31.75 and 32.25 DKFP. On the season, he’s averaging 0.85 DKFP per minute. It’s also a pace-up spot for the Knicks as Minnesota is third in offensive pace.
Overall Lineup Strategy
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I didn’t mention any of the Jazz players because I like the prices of other players better, but with Donovan Mitchell out, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, and Mike Conley are all viable at their price points. Rudy Gobert also has a good matchup. There’s good value at the guard position, so paying up for one of the studs shouldn’t be a problem. There is no absolute smash spot as of yet so ownership should be spread out evenly at the top.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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