Happy Wednesday! After a short and sweet four-game slate in the NBA on Tuesday, we come back with a loaded 10-game slate on Wednesday with a couple of popcorn matchups on national television. With so much to choose from, let’s survey DraftKings Sportsbook for some player props, totals and sides to bet. You can follow me on Twitter (@KennyDucey) for any late adds.
Here’s what jumps out to me tonight.
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It’s been a difficult season for those backing the Celtics, but anyone who’s been repeatedly buying Boston against the spread will tell you home games have been just about the only place the team’s been trustworthy. The Celtics are 12-9 ATS at the TD Garden, and are quietly beginning to round back into form, as Boston’s covered in four of its last six overall. In those games, Boston’s shot a fantastic 40.4% from three which has made up for so-so defense on the perimeter. There’s a good chance Jaylen Brown is back for this game, and he’ll certainly bring some defensive intensity back to this unit in addition to contributing plenty of threes of his own. I’m always a fan of taking teams either getting points or in a pick ‘em situation like this when they’ve got someone who can combat Luka Doncic, and Marcus Smart is that man for Boston. This should be a great test of where the Celtics are at, and if they’re going to be serious about contending this year. I think they make a statement.
Let’s take a trip back to the last time these two teams played, shall we? The Knicks dominated the entire game, leading by as many as 21, before the Timberwolves made a late push against a defense that lost all focus. In the end, the Knicks still covered, and did so despite Minnesota shooting 45.7% from three and Karl-Anthony Towns going for 27 points and 15 rebounds.
Well, the chances of the Timberwolves shooting that well, against the league’s best three-point defense, are miniscule. Towns also isn’t likely to have another fantastic game against the 10th-best rebounding team in the league and one that ranks second in restricted area field goal percentage. If you want to play the averages here, the Knicks should win this one by a lot.
Another day, another bet on the Suns to cover at home. Why do I like this one so much? Well, Phoenix is a ridiculous 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 home games, it presents a matchup nightmare for the Bulls and there’s also a good chance Zach LaVine misses this game.
The Bulls have hardly played in the post this year, not even hitting seven post-ups per game, but since acquiring Nikola Vucevic they’ve averaged 17 post-ups, leading the NBA. That’s incredible!
If that’s going to be their strategy on Wednesday, it’s not going to work out too well for them. The Suns have been elite against post-ups this year, ranking 10th at just 0.9 points per play against them, thanks to the very long, very imposing Deandre Ayton. If the Bulls decide to force-feed Vuc again — which they’re likely to if LaVine is out — they’re going to really struggle to score. That’ll be their undoing against a red-hot offense.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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