The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
The DraftKings Alsco Uniforms 300 slate locks at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
1. Noah Gragson ($11,300) - This is not Homestead. The Gragson hype train will roll over from last week, but it shouldn’t. This is his hometown track, but it does not have a magical groove on the wall. Last fall, Gragson had the second best car to Chase Briscoe. Unfortunately, just because Briscoe is gone does not mean Gragson becomes king.
2. Justin Allgaier ($11,000) - In the spring race, Allgaier had a top car in clean air, but what car isn’t under those circumstances. In the fall Las Vegas races, his car went from terrible to a top 5 car once the track cooled.
3. Harrison Burton ($9,900) - A contrarian pit strategy almost allowed Burton to steal the Las Vegas win from Chase Briscoe, but a caution bailed Briscoe out. Burton had some decent runs at 1.5 mile tracks last season, but he needs his equipment to survive. Two JGR cars failed last week (Burton and Ty Dillon).
4. Austin Cindric ($10,500) - This is the week where we find out if the Xfinity series is Cindric’s world. Last week was an outlier race destined to be controlled by Noah Gragson. The traditional intermediate tracks are dominated by the best drivers in the best cars with the best teams.
5. Ty Dillon ($10,200) - The #54 JGR car won at the Daytona Road Course with the good Ty driving (Gibbs). This car wrecked at Daytona and suffered a mechanical failure at Homestead with the other Ty driving (Dillon). This is a big race for a guy with limited opportunities to prove he deserves a ride.
6. Brandon Brown ($6,900) - It’s a rarity to have the option to roster Brandon Brown at an intermediate track with a starting position in the back half of the field. Brown pointed his way into the playoffs last season. A mechanical failure on lap two last week is the reason that he is starting near the back.
7. Joe Graf Jr ($4,800) - His talent is lacking, but his equipment is better than half of the field. If he can go out and just turn laps and keep his pace within a lap of the leader, then he should be a good return of value at this price.
8. Tyler Reddick ($11,600) - On a normal week, DFS NASCAR players would jam him into their lineups. This is not a normal week, and the starting grid will not be normal for awhile. There are cheaper drivers with better equipment starting in similar spots.
9. Brandon Jones ($9,400) - When does Jones win at intermediate tracks? Jones is a top 10 driver that has scored some intermediate track wins due to cautions and significant stage three events. There is no way to predict these scenarios. Therefore, it’s impossible to draft Jones based on evidence.
10. Ryan Vargas ($7,100) - The JD Motorsports cars are 20th to 25th place cars. Vargas worked his way to 17th in stage three at Homestead, but on the final restart, Vargas was spun out by Santino Ferrucci and dropped to 25th.
11. Daniel Hemric ($9,200) - Las Vegas starts the clock. The first three races were not strong barometers for what Hemric can do. Las Vegas is fairly traditional, and success here means success everywhere for Hemric. Failure at Las Vegas means that this could be another long season.
12. Justin Haley ($8,800) - The Kaulig cars have slowly built their way from the Blake Koch days to a competitive three car stable. The word competitive is complimentary and condescending, but this might be the year that they are actually competitive. Haley ran the 5th most laps inside the top 5 last week.
13. Colby Howard ($6,100) - Let’s try this again. Playing a JD Motorsports car in the back didn’t work last week. Mechanical failures happen, but they’re not very common for JD Motorsports. Before his car died, Howard spent almost all of his stage three laps inside the top 20. He finished 21st at Las Vegas last fall.
14. Stefan Parsons ($5,200) - Do you have paper hands or diamond hands? Parsons is taking the Doge car to the moon. The DFS players that HODL Parsons will be eating tendies in space on Saturday. Last week Parsons spun a couple times and struggled at Homestead, but he was able to finish 20th at Las Vegas last fall.
15. Riley Herbst ($9,000) - The #98 car won both Xfinity races and led 253 laps at Las Vegas last season. Herbst is a significant downgrade from Chase Briscoe, but he should be competitive by stage three.
16. Ryan Sieg ($8,200) - Equipment matters. For the first time ever, Sieg drove a brand new RCR car at Las Vegas last fall, not a year old hand-me-down model. Sieg was a threat to win that race. This year, Sieg switched to Ford, and the results haven’t been great. Sieg only ran 17 laps inside the top 10 last week.
17. Myatt Snider ($8,000) - His win should not be a surprise; RCR cars are supposed to win races. The manner in which Snider won is not uncommon in the Xfinity Series either. With low tier drivers operating as moving chicanes and irascible silver spoons bringing out late race cautions, surprise winners aren’t a thing. They’re just winners.
18. Bayley Currey ($6,200) - DFS players are going to roster a Mike Harmon car simply because it is starting in the back. What could go wrong? Last week, Currey coyly hinted that he may have a brand new engine in his car. The new engine didn’t fail, but just about every other part did. DFS players do not need a lot of speed, they just need this jalopy to run.
19. Josh Berry ($7,300) - As soon as the broadcasters highlighted Berry’s performance last week, he proceeded to smash into the wall. With fresh tires, and a lengthy run, he snuck his way into the optimal lineup by poaching fast laps. That won’t happen again, but Berry likely won’t hit the wall this week because Las Vegas does not require rim riding.
20. Jade Buford ($5,800) - Homestead was his first intermediate track race ever. It was also the first time that Big Machine Racing built a car for an intermediate track. Buford took it easy and cruised in the back. That’s acceptable at Homestead. The big takeaway is that the car didn’t fail and Buford did not wreck.
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