It’s Friday then ... then Saturday, Sunday, what! Well, you know how the song goes. It’s the weekend, and that means baseball galore, kicking off in the afternoon on Saturday and going deep into the night. I’ve got my eyes on some totals that I think should cash with relative comfortability. With that in mind, here are my favorite MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I was in love with the under on Thursday when these two teams began their three-game set, and I am in love with it again here. Not only is the wind blowing in at PNC Park, which is always an under bettor’s dream, we’ve got two offenses that downright stink.
The Cubs are fourth-to-last in baseball with a 73 wRC+ this year, which isn’t a number I think is much of a fluke. Anthony Rizzo has declined, and without him this lineup really has few redeeming qualities. There are probably two good hitters in this entire order in Ian Happ and Kris Bryant.
What’s more, today’s starter for the Pirates, Mitch Keller, is significantly better against righties (.795 OPS) than lefties (.946 OPS). That’s important to note because after Happ, the Cubs have absolutely no one who can hit from the left side as long as Rizzo continues to slump.
That covers the Cubs and, well, I don’t have to tell you that the Pirates are bad at hitting. They’re dead last in hard-hit rate, and Zach Davies is no chump. This should go under yet again.
This is another game where the wind’s expected to swirl, but although Mother Nature will be working hard to keep this game low-scoring, it won’t be nearly enough to stop Jose Urquidy and Frankie Montas from stinking it up at Minute Maid Park.
The pair couldn’t be more awful and less deserving of a low total like this. Montas has an ERA that’s approaching seven since the start of 2020, and was torched for five runs on seven hits and a walk in last year’s ALDS against Houston. Urquidy, on the other hand, is a soft-tosser who has no swing-and-miss stuff to speak of. His strikeout rate was in the bottom 6% of the league last year, which is very hard to do!
The A’s proved last night that they don’t have a terrible lineup, and ranking eighth in hard-hit rate would seem to back up what our eyes have told us. They’ve been making plenty of contact and have been ready to break out of this slump for a while now. By my math, that gives us two good offenses and two bad pitchers. Take the over.
Will I back Jose Quintana ever again? It’s a hard question to answer. I’m not sure I’ve done it in three years, because fading him has just been so sweet. The left-hander just keeps getting worse, flaunting an xwOBA of around .320 in three straight seasons and starting off this season in grand fashion by allowing four runs on five hits over 3 1/3 innings against the Astros last week. The Blue Jays had a wRC+ of 105 against left-handers last year and I see no reason why they shouldn’t have success against a bad pitcher. On the other hand, while I do hate backing Steven Matz, he did look pretty good against the Rangers in his first outing, and apparently the Rangers can really hit this year. I’m going to keep fading Quintana until it proves to be a bad idea.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.