Monday night features a monster 12-game slate. Monsters are scary to some people.
As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Zack Greinke $10,200, Houston Astros (-250) vs. Detroit Tigers (+210) — So, we have a lot of pitchers to choose from on this slate from a daily perspective. On the Sportsbook side, the Astros and Greinke are the big favorites in a matchup against the 3-6 Tigers.
Off the bat, I’m not a fan of the $10,200 price tag for Greinke at all. He’s not a pitcher you can consistently rely upon for strikeouts, which is certainly something you’d expect if you’re paying five figures. Against the Angels and Athletics this season, Greinke has only eight strikeouts through 13 innings. He’s pitched well in those games, averaging 20 DKFP but if he’s not earning strikeouts, you really need him to pitch clean the entire way. The matchup isn’t daunting against a Tigers club that thus far has a .278 wOBA, a .175 ISO and a 27.7 K% against righties this season but we have so many options to choose from on this 12-game slate.
From a betting sense, the Astros have been one of the safer plays on the board, going 6-3 straight up, 7-2 on the run line and 6-3 hitting the over.
Highest Projected Total
Oakland Athletics (-125; 4.5 runs) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+108; 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — We’re at the point now where you simply have to target against Madison Bumgarner ($7,900). He’s not getting unlucky, he’s not getting squeezed, he’s simply a shell of his former self. His first season with the Diamondbacks was a total disaster, tossing 41.2 innings with a 7.18 FIP, a 2.78 HR/9 only a 15.8% K% and a 44% hard-hit rate. He’s picking right up where he left off with a 6.15 FIP through two starts.
Tonight he’ll face an Athletics team that’ll go very right-handed heavy but also lose the DH. The A’s have used a few people in that spot but it likely will lead to Seth Brown ($2,400) on the bench. Since the beginning of last season, righties have blasted Bumgarner for a .409 wOBA, a 7.85 FIP, a 2.8 HR/9 and a 46.3% hard-hit rate. Truly, I look at these stats and see NOTHING that would make me believe there is a glimmer of hope for Bumgarner. Sure, this is baseball and anything can happen but the numbers speak volumes. He’s simply getting hit and hit hard when he takes the mound.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s Mets-Phillies game has been postponed.
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Casey Mize, .439, 8.83
Chase Anderson, .431, 6.62
Sandy Alcantara, .369, 4.97
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Justus Sheffield, .192, 2.38
Zack Greinke, .234, 1.61
Erick Fedde, .255, 5.50
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Robbie Ray, .425, 7.49
Madison Bumgarner, .404, 8.42
Chase Anderson, .397, 5.84
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Sandy Alcantara, .215, 2.77
Adbert Alzolay .226, 3.11
Triston McKenzie, .230, 3.41
Pitcher to Build Around
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers, $10,400 — Glasnow is just a stud. On the mound, off the mound, I don’t care where he is. He’s made two starts already and looks to be in mid-season form, allowing just one run on five hits with 15 strikeouts through 12 innings. Tonight, he draws a matchup against the Rangers, who have been very generous with striking out. They have a 27.1% K% against righties, which ranks 7th in the league. Offensively, they aren’t doing much either with a .316 wOBA, and a .137 ISO. I absolutely love this spot for Glasnow and feel as if he’s the best option to pay up for.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $5,700 — Judge has massive, massive power against lefties and I don’t want to miss him against Robbie Ray ($7,500). He’s coming off the injured list to make his first start of the season so I don’t expect him to go long in this game. To be fair, when DOES Ray go deep in a game?
Last season, Judge posted a .383 wOBA with a .360 ISO (!) and a 145 wRC+. We all know the struggles Ray has endured with both home runs and his command, so the likelihood that Judge will be up with man on base is high. To his credit, Ray did have a decent Spring Training so maybe all is not lost but until I see it on a consistent basis, Ray is always a pitcher to target against.
Save Big by Drafting
Corey Dickerson, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, $3,100 — This is such a cheap price for a hitter that bats leadoff. Dickerson has been picking it up at the plate, going 5-for-15 with two doubles over his last four games, averaging 7.2 DKFP in that span. He’s facing off against Huascar Ynoa ($6,000) who we haven’t seen of much in the majors. He’s pitched a total of 30.2 innings and has a .315 wOBA and a 5.42 FIP against lefties. While this matchup isn’t a slam dunk, you’re not paying much for a leadoff hitter against a pitcher with shaky command. Dickerson has also shown plenty of pop in his career, making this an easy way to save some salary on a slate you’ll desperately need to do so.
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