Following Hideki Matsuyama’s dominant victory at the Masters, the PGA TOUR continues this week with the RBC Heritage. Ever since its inception in 1969, Harbour Town Golf Links (par 71, 7,121 yards) in Hilton Head, South Carolina has hosted this event. Webb Simpson took home the novelty check here last season, breaking the tournament record for lowest winning number at 22 strokes under par.
Harbour Town was designed by the late Pete Dye, and like most of his venues, this track is a second-shot course that requires precise iron play. During his victory a year ago, Simpson ranked inside the top-ten in both SGT2G and SG APP, and he was the third Heritage champion across the last five years to do so. Clubbing down is a common trend in Hilton Head, as the average drive of the last five winners is a modest 277.2 yards, and we can safely decrease off-the-tee stats in our models for the RBC Heritage.
Of all the stats to consider this week, par four efficiency has been the most crucial. Over the last decade, every single player to be crowned a PGA TOUR winner in Hilton Head has finished the tournament top-three in SG on the par fours, with six of these ten golfers leading their fields. Lastly, the greens at this par 71 are Bermuda grass, and while strong putting is needed to win any golf event, it is slightly more important than usual at Harbour Town. Last year, no player gained more shots with their flat stick than Simpson, and all of the past ten Heritage champs have ranked T16 or better in SGP.
Obviously, we have to expect a weaker field coming off a major, but this is actually a very solid group of players teeing it up this week in South Carolina. Including World No. 1 Dustin Johnson, ten of the top-20 ranked golfers in the world are competing at this year’s RBC Heritage. In total, 137 players are listed in this field and we get back to the standard top-65 and ties cut line following the first 36 holes.
Below, I have featured four of my favorite golfers who are priced at $7,300 or less on DraftKings this week.
Emiliano Grillo, $7,300
Of all the golfers priced under $7,500 this week, Grillo presents the 2nd best odds to win the RBC Heritage on DraftKings Sportsbook (+8000), and it is for good reason. Following his T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which was his fourth top-25 since the start of February, Grillo has impressively made 16 of his last 20 cuts.
Across his past 12 rounds, the 28-year-old out of Argentina ranks 5th in GIR, 2nd in BOB% and 6th in total strokes gained. He has also been playing on the weekend in eight of his last ten starts at Pete Dye crafted courses, including a T16 in 2019 at Harbour Town. Overall, Grillo is two for three in made cuts at the par 71, and his pristine current form should translate to a quality finish this weekend.
Adam Hadwin, $7,100
Hadwin comes into this week making seven of his past eight cuts, including five top-30 finishes. The Canadian just posted a T8 at the Honda Classic less than a month ago, and has produced positive strokes T2G and with his putter in four of his last five starts.
His strong ball striking and elite work on the greens are a recipe for success at Harbour Town, and Hadwin has made four straight cuts at this track. In general, the 33-year-old is a master at Pete Dye designs, proceeding to the weekend in eight of his past ten appearances at courses designed by the famous architect, with a pair of top-tens. Hadwin is safe investment for at least a top-30 this week and is viable for cash games and GPPs at his depressed price.
Lucas Glover, $7,100
At the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago, Glover reminded us that he is still a tremendous ball striker. In the 4th place finish, the 2009 U.S. Open champion amassed 12.0 strokes T2G and 7.1 strokes on approach, good enough to rank him 4th and 5th in those stats, respectively, for the tournament. These both marked new season-highs for Glover and he has also positively gained strokes putting in three consecutive events, which is extremely encouraging for someone that has notoriously been a weak putter throughout his career. Additionally, over his last 12 rounds, the 41-year-old ranks 8th in SG on par fours.
The top-five at TPC San Antonio was the 9th time Glover has made it to the weekend in his past 11 starts, and if he can maintain this form at Harbour Town, a top-10 isn’t out of the question for the veteran. Glover has made five of his last six cuts in Hilton Head, with no finishes worse than T33rd.
Patton Kizzire, $6,500
On Sunday at the Valero Texas Open, Kizzire was magnificent, firing out a seven-under 65. This was the low round of the day at TPC San Antonio, en route to a T9 finish for the 35-year-old. For the week, Kizzire ranked 2nd in SG APP and has now advanced through the cutline in 15 of his past 17 starts, finishing inside the top-25 five times. His excellent iron play ranks him 10th in SG APP and 8th in GIR when we compare this entire field’s last 12 rounds, and Kizzire’s huge putting splits in favor of Bermuda have carried him to nine made cuts in his previous ten starts on the specific surface.
He carded a T14 in his Harbour Town debut back in 2016, and Kizzire has serious upside this week if he can carry over the momentum from that closing round 65 in Texas.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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