Monday was a really good slate and Tuesday could be as well. That would be great!
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trevor Bauer, $10,200, Los Angeles Dodgers (-345) vs. Colorado Rockies (+260) — As you can see, the Dodgers are a bit of a favorite tonight going up against the helpless 3-7 Rockies. They have been hitting for power with a .197 ISO against righties but the rest of the numbers are far from impressive. A .283 wOBA, 65 wRC+ (gross) and a 23.1% K% certainly don’t stand out. They’ve also been around league average against the fastball, which Bauer throws nearly 50% of the time.
This is the second time this matchup will take place with the first being at Coors Field. Bauer made it through 6.1 innings allowing four runs on three hits while striking out 10. What this doesn’t show is that Bauer did have a no-hitter going through six innings until the wheels completely came off. Nonetheless, this was an impressive debut. Amongst the other pitchers on this slate, he certainly sticks out as an obvious play. I’m not looking to back him at a juiced up -345 moneyline, but the Dodgers are 6-4 on the run line thus far this season, covering by an average of +0.8 runs. Specifically in Bauer starts, the Dodgers are 1-1.
Other notable favorite: Jake Odorizzi ($7,200; -195) vs. Detroit Tigers, Ryan Yarbrough ($7,400; -177) vs. Texas Rangers
Highest Projected Total
New York Yankees (EV; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-115; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — I had to check multiple times to make sure the Yankees were underdogs in this game. I can confirm, they are indeed against Hyun Jin Ryu ($8,000). The over on the team 4.5 runs is also at plus money at +105. To be fair, Ryu did pitch well against this club on Opening Day, limiting them to just two runs on four hits and striking out five through 5.1 innings. I think it’s fair to say that the Yankees are struggling a bit on offense, averaging just over 4.1 runs per game. In fact, the Yankees have one of the highest groundball rates in the league currently at 47.8% (6th) and one of the lowest hard-hit rates at 29.8% (21st).
For the Yankees, Jameson Taillon ($9,400) will make his second start of the season after going 4.2 innings against the Orioles, allowing two runs on three hits and striking out seven. Both runs scored on two solo home runs and despite a 3.86 ERA in that game, his FIP ended at 5.72. The Blue Jays are another club that have gotten off to a slow offensive start and are missing a couple of key bats in their lineup. This game feels like it could be a slugfest on paper but judging by how these teams are currently performing, I would lean on the under, which is at -103. At least in the early portion of this season, these teams are both 3-7 on hitting the over. Both the Yankees and Blue Jays are failing to cover by over a run each, at -1.3 and -1.6 respectively.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants - 14mph winds blowing out toward center field.
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kyle Gibson, .363, 6.78
Luis Castillo, .329, 3.80
Jack Flaherty, .327, 5.15
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Matthew Boyd, .186, 2.92
Shane Bieber, .194, 1.39
Kyle Hendricks, .241, 3.19
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Matthew Boyd, .410, 6.41
Kyle Gibson, .350, 4.36
Danny Duffy, .336, 5.00
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Bauer, .192, 1.76
Dylan Bundy, .230, 1.60
Pablo Lopez, .241, 2.91
Pitcher to Build Around
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs, $7,500 — Despite all the big names on the slate tonight, I’m going way down the list to grab Woodruff. The Cubs offense is downright awful and they’re striking out a ton. In fact, they currently own the fourth-highest K% against righties at 29.6% to go with a .236 wOBA, a .113 ISO and a 48 (!) wRC+!!!! Both the .236 wOBA and the 48 wRC+ are the WORST in the league against righties. So, why wouldn’t I want to take Woodruff, who is an extremely friendly $7,500? With a fastball, changeup and slider as his three main pitches, the Cubs rank 27th, 10th and 26th against those pitches respectively. Woodruff relies on that fastball, a pitch he’s thrown over 60% of the time in each of his four seasons in the bigs. With the Cubs currently one of the worst teams against that pitch, Woodruff could be a steal at $7,500.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, $5,500 — Seager is still in search of his first home run of the season but is still contributing plenty to this Dodger offense. With four doubles and seven RBI, he’s in a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela ($6,000), who has historically struggled against lefties. What was really eye opening to me was that the most damage came away from Coors Field, as lefties tagged him for a .406 wOBA, a 7.72 FIP and four of the nine home runs he allowed. While it’s likely to be tough to stack the Dodgers on this slate, grabbing a piece of this team is something I’ll be looking to do. While the power is still coming, Seager has a .495 wOBA and a .174 ISO against righties in the early going.
Save Big by Drafting
Nomar Mazara, Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, $2,200 — I don’t envision myself writing up Mazara often, or even ever again this season. However, there is a lot to pay up for on this slate and Mazara is literally one of the cheapest bats in the pool. This is not someone you roster for consistent power but at this salary for someone who is likely batting fifth, I can’t ignore it. We didn’t see much of Jake Odorizzi ($7,200) in 2020 but in 2019, he had a .324 wOBA with eight of the 16 home runs he allowed to lefties. Mazara doesn’t need to do much of ANYTHING tonight to return value on his $2,200 salary. It’s wroth taking a shot if you’re in need of some salary savings.
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