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The Denver Nuggets will host the Miami Heat at 10:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday night, and DraftKings is offering up some huge Showdown contests for this game. Below, I give you some of my favorite options to attack for the format.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (MIA vs DEN)
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Showdown Strategy
Captain’s Picks
Nikola Jokic ($18,900 CP)
With the unfortunate news of Jamal Murray (knee) being done for the season, we should see Jokic put the team on his back for the remainder of 2020-21. Murray has missed six contests this season, and Jokic has collected a whopping 63.6 DKFP per game with his point guard inactive. Furthermore, in all the time he has been on the floor sans Murray and Gary Harris (traded to Orlando) this season, Jokic has watched his usage rate increase by 6.0 percentage points and his assist rate by an absurd 14.7 percentage points.
Facing this stout Miami defense that ranks 5th in defensive efficiency is never easy, but Jokic still has a high probability of reaching the DraftKings triple-double bonus, and the superstar will be playing at home, where he has provided 2.5 more DKFP this season, compared to when on the road. By a wide margin, Jokic should finish first in fantasy points produced in this tilt, and is without question the best captain option for this Showdown slate.
Michael Porter Jr. ($13,800 CP)
If not paying up for Jokic, MPJ is my next favorite choice at captain. Very quietly, the 22-year-old has been a reliable fantasy asset, amassing 37.1 DKFP per game since the All-Star break. With Murray now missing from this offense, Porter Jr. is going to be asked to shoulder a big workload.
When the point guard has been off court this year, Porter Jr. has received a 23.8% usage rate and he is averaging 39 DKFP per game in the six full contests Murray has been unavailable. DraftKings Sportsbook has Denver listed as a four-point favorite, and when the spread has been under five since the start of March, Porter Jr. has contributed 37 DKFP per game.
UTIL Plays
Jimmy Butler ($11,400)
Butler’s safety is tough to pass up on for this Showdown format. Only twice in his past ten starts has Butler failed to supply at least 40 DKFP, and the Nuggets have issues containing small forwards, allowing the 10th most DKFP per game to the position.
At a record of 34-20, Denver sits 4th in Western Conference standings, and as usual, Butler shouldn’t back down against one of the top teams in the NBA. The hard-nosed veteran is producing 43 DKFP when matched up with clubs that own a record above .500 this season.
Kendrick Nunn ($5,600)
Nunn has been the interim starter for Victor Oladipo (knee) over the past two games. Due to the blowout and terrible matchup against Chris Paul and the Suns’ elite defense (6th in defensive efficiency) last night, Nunn only posted 20.5 DKFP in 19.3 minutes. But, in a more competitive setting vs. the Trail Blazers on Sunday, the 25-year-old got all the way up to 32.3 minutes, lifting him to 28.75 DKFP.
In a close projected tilt this evening, Nunn should eclipse 30 minutes, and in the 488 minutes he has been on the floor without Oladipo and Kelly Olynyk this season, the combo guard is averaging a solid 0.9 DKFP per minute. Over 30 minutes of action has resulted in 32 DKFP per game for Nunn this year, and he tallied 27.5 DKFP against the Nuggets back in January.
Facundo Campazzo ($4,000)
Campazzo should get the first crack at the Nuggets’ starting point guard job with Murray on the shelf. He has joined the first unit the last three games Murray has missed and in the most recent one of these starts, Campazzo recorded 26.25 DFKP in 33.3 minutes against the Celtics this past Sunday.
He should log nothing less than 25 minutes vs. the Heat, and whenever he has reached this mark this season, the rookie is contributing 20 DKFP per game. The matchup is far from ideal, but Campazzo is still the top salary relief option available from this contest.
Fades
Aaron Gordon ($7,600)
Gordon has made an impact, ranking 4th on the team in plus/minus since being acquired by Denver, but this hasn’t exactly translated to strong fantasy numbers. In his first nine games as a Nugget, the athletic forward has only collected 22 DKFP per game, compared to the 32.3 DKFP per game Gordon was producing in Orlando.
Murray’s absence should help his role in the long run, but Gordon’s modest numbers should continue in this tough matchup vs. the Heat, and his salary is far too aggressive to consider.
The Outcome
Both of these clubs are coming off losses, but the Nuggets have the rest advantage. The Nuggets haven’t played since Monday, while the Heat had to travel to Denver after competing in Phoenix last night. The Nuggets are also 3-1 in their past four without Murray and 9-3 in their last 12 at home in the Ball Arena.
While their title aspirations took a huge hit with the loss of Murray, I highly doubt Jokic and company are going to hang their heads, and I expect them to grind out a home win tonight in a nail-biter against this Heat club that is playing their second game in two nights.
Final Score: Nuggets 108, Heat 105
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (MIA vs DEN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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