Hello, it’s Wednesday. Read my article about baseball tonight. Thanks.
Follow me on Twitter as well or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dustin May, $9,400, Los Angeles Dodgers (-275) vs. Colorado Rockies (+220) — I mean, did you expect anyone else other than a Dodger pitcher to be a massive favorite against the Rockies tonight? Of course, you didn’t, you stud you.
May is next in line to take on the Rox after making an impressive 2021 debut against the Athletics. With his impressive head of hair flowing in the wind, May tossed six innings allowing just two hits, no runs and striking out eight. Now he faces a struggling Rockies offense that continues to dwell near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, including just a .266 wOBA, a .180 ISO and only a 53 wRC+ against righties. May hasn’t been someone that’s consistently averaged over a strikeout per inning in his career but his first start was quite impressive, inducing a 17.6% swing-and-miss rate. While that likely is more of an outlier, a start against the Rockies could bring more of that tonight.
Highest Projected Total
Seattle Mariners (+110; 4.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (-130; 4.5 runs) 9 runs — The future AL West Mariners continue their series with the Orioles this evening. This game is one of two games with a projected total of nine runs but this has a -120 line for the over. This is quite the matchup on paper with Justin Dunn ($6,100) taking on Matt Harvey ($6,700) two of the cheaper pitchers on the slate. The Orioles are favored against Dunn, who had a rough 2020 campaign. In 10 starts and 45 2/3 innings, Dunn exhibited some really poor command with a 15.7% BB%, a 6.54 FIP, and a 39.8% hard-hit rate. With that in mind, however, the Orioles have really struggled offensively out of the gate. Against righties, they only have a .272 wOBA, a .125 ISO and a 29.4% K%. So, something has to give here from either side. Nonetheless between Dunn and Harvey, offense should be expected in this game, if of course, they play.
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles- Rain is expected throughout the evening. It does get better as the evening progresses, so it’s all about tolerance of waiting it out or not.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves- 11mph winds blowing out toward left field.
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Justin Dunn, .362, 7.31
Jon Gray, .362, 6.36
Charlie Morton, .337, 4.66
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zach Plesac, .262, 3.84
Lance McCullers Jr, .281, 2.88
Zack Wheeler, .283, 3.11
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Michael Fulmer, .592, 12.19
Lance McCullers Jr, .338, 4.61
Charlie Morton, .325, 2.55
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Zach Plesac, .224, 3.03
Dustin May, .226, 3.19
Justin Dunn, .278, 5.74
Pitcher to Build Around
Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians, $8,900 — So, full disclosure, this pick could EASILY blow up in our faces but at least let me explain. Rodon is facing an Indians team that historically, has performed well against lefties. We have some bats to worry about like Jose Ramirez ($5,700) and Franmil Reyes ($4,700), but I think it’s potentially a sneaky spot for Rodon. His two main pitches, the fastball and slider, haven’t been strong points for the Indians. Currently, they rank 24th against the fastball and 14th against the slider. I loved what I saw from Rodon in his first start against the Mariners (future AL West champs) as he struck out nine and induced a 15.8% swing-and-miss rate.
Don’t get me wrong, the Indians aren’t an easy offense to go against as a lefty, I can’t deny that. I simply think this could be a spot where Rodon will surprise in what will be perceived as a tough matchup.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, $4,800 — Hoskins is a monster when it comes to facing lefties. Since the beginning of last season, Hoskins boasts a .520 wOBA, a .455 ISO and an insane 229 wRC+. Tonight, he gets David Peterson ($7,100) who hasn’t pitched in a week due to games being postponed. Peterson has not found much success against righties since being called up and has a career .323 wOBA, a 5.44 FIP and all seven of the home runs he’s allowed.
Save Big by Drafting
Jose Trevino, Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, $3,100 — This section is going to be used for obscure players, apparently. Last night it was Nomar Mazara, who hit a bomb and gave all you smart kids 21 DKFP. So let’s continue to think I’m brilliant and give you a VALUE CATCHER to use.
Trevino continues to be too cheap to ignore. Yesterday he hit CLEANUP for the Rangers and score 8.0 DKFP going 2-for-5 at the plate with a run scored. Trevino has some good numbers against lefties and that what he draws tonight, facing Josh Fleming ($8,200). This will be his first game of the season after making his MLB debut last year. He’s a contact pitcher who ended with a 4.40 FIP compared to his 2.78 ERA through 32 1/3 innings last season. Until now, Trevino hasn’t played a ton but in his career, he now has a .346 wOBA with a .176 ISO and a 114 wRC+ in 90 plate appearances against lefties. I’ll take that for $3,100.
Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of the applicable MLB entity. All rights reserved.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.