We got the 2021 season started on the right foot last Wednesday with a 2-1 week in article plays, and we’ll look to keep things rolling with an all-day slate of baseball. However, there are definitely some things you’ll have to keep an eye on throughout the day, with the troublesome weather in the northeast being near the top of that list.
Here are a few of my favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook for this evening.
There’s a chance that this one gets rained out and that would be an absolute shame. Despite the fact that these are two of the most anonymous lineups in all of baseball, I really figured this total would be double-digits on Wednesday. I mean, just look at the matchup between the starting pitchers. For Seattle, Justin Dunn is expected to take the bump, a man currently sporting a 36.4% walk rate in 2021 and a 19.2% walk rate for his career. That’s some serious offensive charity. On Baltimore’s side, you’ll find the husk of Matt Harvey, someone that’s surrendered 2.22 home runs per nine going back to the start of 2019. In general, these aren’t right-handers who work many clean innings. You’ve also got a pair of tired bullpens, after these two squads played a double-header on Tuesday. If this one gets going, the scoreboard operator is going to be busy.
Team Total: Rays OV 4.5 Runs (-117)
I’m not sure how much longer he’ll be in the Rangers’ rotation, so I’m going to try and wring every little bit of value out of Kohei Arihara’s outings while I can. It’s only been two starts in the majors for the 28-year-old, but every red flag that could possibly be raised is currently standing at full-staff. Arihara has simply been unable to generate any swings and misses in his 9.0 innings of work, with opponents amassing an eye-popping 97.8% contact rate on the pitches the right-hander leaves in the zone. Now, a high contact rate is necessarily the ticket to a pitcher’s demise, yet it’s a trait that needs to be accompanied by the ability to suppress hard contact — think Hyun-Jin Ryu or Kyle Hendricks. Well, that’s not been the case with Arihara as 18.2% of his batted ball events have been barrels, the fourth-highest mark of the 119 pitchers with at least 25 BBEs so far in 2021. It’s why Arihara’s expected ERA sits at an ugly 9.90 heading in Wednesday’s action.
The Dodgers are massive favorites on the moneyline against the Rockies on Wednesday, but we can find a little value in the world of props. With Colorado getting first at-bats on the road, the Rockies technically have the inside path to getting runs on the board; yet I don’t think that’s going to matter all the much. I mean, Los Angeles has posted three shutouts in its past four games. The Dodgers’ pitching is incredible and Dustin May very much fit that mold in his first outing of 2021 against the Athletics, tossing six scoreless innings with a career-high swinging strike rate of 17.6%. For his career, May has also been a monster the first time through the order, sporting a 1.35 ERA across his 15 starts and limiting opponents to a .240 wOBA. For their part, Los Angeles leads baseball with a 136 wRC+, so they won’t need much time to get someone home and get out to an early lead.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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