The RBC Heritage will host 10 of the top 20 ranked golfers this week, and even though the field is strong, this tournament is wide open for the taking. We’ve seen cheap options like C.T. Pan ($7,100) and Satoshi Kodaira ($6,300) win, along with favorites like Webb Simpson ($10,700) and Matt Kuchar ($8,000) takedown Harbour Town.
A balanced lineup could be the first step into being contrarian this week with how many top names and value-plays there are in the cheap ranges. You do not need your entire lineup to be contrarian to cash in GPPs, but you’ll need a couple of golfers who are going under the radar heading into Thursday.
Last year’s $2.25M contest-winning lineup rostered Webb Simpson at 27.9% and Tyrell Hatton ($9,500), who was rostered slightly under 20%. Joaquin Niemann, at $7,400 last season, was the low-rostered stud at 2.5%. The other three golfers all came in around 10% to 11% (Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka and Abraham Ancer).
Course history, current form or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected DraftKings ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs on DraftKings.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to the DraftKings Preview and DraftKings Sportsbook articles. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Webb Simpson ($10,700)
Pivot: Cameron Smith ($10,200)
We probably shouldn’t fade Webb entirely here, but allocating some lineups to Smith, who’s projecting to be a third of Webb’s projected roster percentage, should be considered. Smith has a top 15 and no worse than a 32nd here when he’s made the cut. At his price, he’ll need to do better than a top 15, which is feasible this week with how well he’s been playing. A top 20 or better in each of his previous four starts, Smith’s been tremendous with his irons and putter over the last month, which is what you need at Harbour Town. Fading the entire $10,000 range is also a viable strategy. Still, if you decide to play some pivots up here, Smith and Dustin Johnson ($11,600), who’s projecting to be single-digits in roster percentage at press time, are who you should consider.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Paul Casey ($9,200)
Pivot: Harris English ($8,400)
Casey is projecting to be the chalk in his range for the second straight week. Objectively, Casey should do well this week with how often he’s here and how well he’s currently playing. Harris English is coming off his best finish at the Masters (21st), which followed a 26th at the API, another challenging course. His record on coastal courses is tremendous, with a bevy of top 5s and 10s at Waialae CC, the Mayakoba Classic, and Sea Island Resort. Over the previous 50 rounds, English ranks 16th in SG: Putting on bermuda greens and should feel comfortable in his eighth start here.
$7,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Si Woo Kim ($7,900)
Pivot: Brendon Todd ($7,300)
Like Webb, Si Woo should not be a complete fade, but he’s coming in with a ton of sentiment with how well he’s playing and how well he does on Dye courses. Not rostering Si Woo would involve fading a win earlier this season (on a Dye Course [PGA West]) and someone who ranks second in SG: Tee-to-Green on Dye courses over the previous 50 rounds. If you’re inclined to box out Si Woo rosters for optimal leverage against your competitors, this is the week to do it. Brendon Todd has lost strokes through approach in five-straight measured events but was able to gain 1.13 strokes with his irons (unofficial) on Sunday at Augusta National, which is a potential sign that his ball-striking may be shaping into form. Two wins on coastal courses, a fourth at the 2019 RSM and here in 2015 are a few good signs Todd has a propensity of playing well on this type of tracks.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is reidtfowler) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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