The bottom-dwelling Colorado Rockies get one more shot at the reigning champs and current NL West division leaders. The Rockies will throw a decent left-handed pitcher at the Los Angeles Dodgers, but it doesn’t matter. The Dodgers have the best lineup in baseball on paper and they’re living up to it. They lead MLB in wOBA and wRC+.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Captain’s Picks
Corey Seager ($15,300 CP) - The lefty-lefty matchup is not ideal, but Seager is the ideal hitter. In a small sample size this season, Seager hasn’t been great against left-handed pitching, but since the beginning of 2020, nearly 50% of his contact against left-handed pitching has been hard contact. The opposing lefty on the mound likely won’t last long, and on a Showdown slate, matchups versus relievers have to be factored into roster decisions. The Rockies’ bullpen has the worst xFIP in MLB against left-handed batters this season.
Justin Turner ($15,000 CP) - He’s a platoon legend, and he’s dialed in against left-handed pitching at the moment. In 12 at-bats against left handed pitching, Turner has a .492 wOBA and a .417 ISO. What about righties? This seems like a steep price for Justin Turner. There’s a reason for it; he’s hitting everyone this year. Against right-handed pitching, Turner has a .487 wOBA and a .310 ISO. Turner should go under-owned because most DFS players do not want to pay up for a player that they consider a platoon advantage guy.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (COL vs LAD)
Value Plays
AJ Pollock ($6,600) - With the lefty on the mound, Pollock should draw the start. Going back to the start of the 2020 season, Pollock has posted a strong stat line against left-handed pitching (.453 wOBA, .406 ISO, 190 wRC+, 51% hard contact). He’s hit in eight of ten games this season. Pollock lacks pop as his price reflects, but singles are more valuable in DFS for hitters on good teams. If Pollock reaches base, he is more likely to score than if a Rockies hitter reaches base. When Pollock hits, it’s more likely that there are base runners and RBI opportunities.
Garrett Hampson ($6,200) - By rule, DFS players must play a Rockies player. Here’s your daily small sample size alert, it’s early in the season, but let’s look at Hampson’s 2021 splits. He’s been good against lefties and at his price with few other options, he’ll become a popular play. In 12 at-bats against left-handed pitching, Hampson has a .476 wOBA (mostly singles and walks, but those at-bats have resulted in six runs scored).
Fades
Austin Gomber ($13,800 CP; $9,200) - Why attack the Dodgers? Why pay up to attack the Dodgers? Sure, he limited the Dodgers to one earned run on April 4th at Coors Field, but he only lasted three innings in that game. He also walked seven and maintained a tidy .143 BABIP. In his second start, his BABIP was .067. He is a tinderbox and the Dodgers are pyromaniacs.
The Outcome
The Dodgers’ bats are too much for most pitchers and the Dodgers’ pitchers are too much for most batters. Like most pitchers, Gomber is better outside of Coors Field, but he’s not much better. His strikeout percentage is still too low and his walk rate is too high. Gomber’s pitches are going to find too many bats and he won’t last long. The Dodgers earn their league leading eleventh win.
Final Score: Dodgers 6, Rockies 3
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (COL vs LAD)
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