The name of this article is MLB Best Bets. So I will give you my best bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Editor’s Note: Tonight’s games between NYM/COL, TOR/KC and CWS/BOS have been postponed due to inclement weather.
I’m really, really high on Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani tonight. He’s gotten off to a great start through two games thus far, holding the Rockies and Padres to a combined one run on 10 hits with 12 strikeouts through 11 innings. When you look at his arsenal, you’ll see that the two main pitches he throws are the fastball and slider. Currently, the Marlins rank 26th and 19th against those pitches respectively. On top of that, the Marlins simply aren’t hitting against righties to begin with. They enter this game with a .290 wOBA, a .103 ISO and a 26.5% K%, I mean, what’s not to like?
On top of that, the Marlins will deploy Daniel Castano to make his first start of the season. Last season through 29 2/3 innings, Castano had a 4.81 FIP, just a 9.5 K% (what?!) and a 33% hard-hit rate. The biggest problem for him is that he’s a lefty and the Giants crush in these matchups. The Giants have already picked up where they left off last season and boast a .210 ISO, which currently ranks 7th best in the league.
At first I felt like this had to be a trap. We have two REALLY bad pitchers taking the mound tonight in Jorge Lopez for the O’s and Mike Foltynewicz for the Rangers. So, why on Earth is this game total at 8.5? Honestly, after going through some research, I don’t have a good answer for you. So in that case, I’m going to take advantage of it.
Sure, we can point out that neither team is exactly crushing the ball right now. That is certainly true. The Orioles are averaging 4.0 runs per game while the Rangers are at 4.2. Those numbers rank them 20th and 18th respectively. However, the Rangers specifically are coming off a really good series against the Rays where they won 3-of-4 and averaged 6.3 runs in those wins. Lopez of the Orioles has already been tagged for 11 runs on 11 hits, including three home runs in 8 2/3 innings. That alone would potentially lead to a play for o4.5 runs on the Rangers team total at -110.
For the Orioles, they’ll see Folty, who hasn’t been hit as hard but has allowed three home runs and six walks through 11 innings. He’s not making batters miss at all with a 6.0% swing-and-miss rate in his two starts. Throwing mainly his fastball, the Orioles at the least are just above league average against the pitch. In all, I think this total is simply too low to ignore.
Matz has two good starts under his belt, which is likely the reason this team total for the Royals is only at 3.5 runs. Let’s thank Matz for his good start and go and hit the over on this total. At least with how this season has started, he’s faced two teams that are near the bottom of the league against lefties in the Angels and Rangers. It helped him throw 12 1 ⁄ 3 innings allowing just two runs on seven hits while striking out 13. Impressive! Everything checks out stats wise, his FIP is good a 3.29, only a 24.1% hard-hit rate allowed and a decent 10.5% swing-and-miss rate. Where the REAL test comes is tonight against the Royals, who have a .359 wOBA, a .215 ISO and a 134 wRC+ against lefties so far. Not to mention, the 17.8 K% is the second-lowest in the league. Give me over 3.5 runs.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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