Congrats, we made it to the weekend. Our reward is a loaded MLB slate with every team in action, and two double-headers on tap as well. I’m in the mood to fade some once-great pitchers today, which is always fun. With that in mind, here are my favorite MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Your favorite show, “Fade The Cubs,” is back with another episode! Yes, I sound like a broken record at this point, but the Cubs can not hit a lick, and any time they a) face a semi-decent pitcher and b) throw one of their awful starters, they must be faded. One of those guys is Trevor Williams, who was knocked around for five runs against the Pirates last time out, proving his nice Cubs debut was nothing more than a result of facing a poor lineup. Williams has been a constant disappointment, rocking a 6.30 FIP last season, and can’t be trusted.
On the other side of the coin, we have this poor Cubs lineup, which ranks last in the league with a 46 wRC+ against righties, facing Huascar Ynoa, who throws absolute gas and just struck out 10 in a win over the Marlins last time out. He’s allowed just one run this season and has produced a lot of swings and misses, ranking in the 82nd percentile in whiff rate. That’s key against a whiff-happy team like Chicago.
I felt like a disappointed father watching both of these teams struggle so much at the plate on Friday night in what was ultimately a pretty crummy pitching matchup. The bats did nothing to earn such a high total today and frankly, neither has Casey Mize. What did this guy ever do to anyone? He was the top pick in the 2018 draft and had some bad starts last year. You know which other highly-touted pitchers have struggled in their first seasons? Almost all of them. We’ve learned with the likes of Lucas Giolito and Trevor Bauer to not write off pitchers just because of early struggles.
Anyway, Mize has looked much better this season, limiting hard contact to the tune of a 37.5% hard-hit rate, and has given up just one barrel in two starts, which is impressive considering the way balls were flying off the bat against him last year and given the fact that those starts were against the Astros and Twins.
The Tigers, on the other hand, are dead last with a 51 wRC+ against lefties this year, and Cole Irvin definitely impressed me against the Astros. With a rested bullpen behind him, the A’s shouldn’t have to worry too much about the Tigers.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Saturday’s Twins-Angles game has been postponed due to COVID-19 issues with the Twins.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Twins -104 Jose Quintana has been a no-good, very bad pitcher for a few years now, but no one wanted to admit it. This season, though, things have really gone south for the left-hander. He’s walked over 20% of the batters he’s faced, and given up an unsightly .364 xwOBA. Matt Shoemaker hasn’t exactly been great either, but at least he’s commanded the zone and has walked just one hitter this season. The Twins have a 110 wRC+ against lefties and should beat up enough on Quintana that it doesn’t really matter what Shoemaker does, but I don’t think he will fare too poorly; he’s kept the Twins in games this year.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.