Nobody gets excited for Mondays but the great news is, we do have six games tonight. Let’s chat about them.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dylan Bundy, $7,700, Los Angeles Angels (-215) vs. Texas Rangers (+180) — The biggest favorite on this slate is hardly going to cost you much for daily fantasy. Bundy has looked like a different pitcher this season through three starts, posting a 3.63 FIP, a 28.6% K%, and a 13.3% swing-and-miss rate. The only blemish have been the home runs, as he’s given up three through 19 innings. Nonetheless, his matchup against an extremely light hitting Rangers offense feels like a no-brainer at $7,700.
I’m not convinced the Rangers are even trying midway through April with a .293 wOBA, a .121 ISO and a league-leading 30.0% K% against righties. Bundy has a four pitch arsenal but mainly relies upon the fastball and slider. The Rangers are league-average against the fastball, ranked 15th and 20th against the slider. With a very high upside for some strikeouts in this game, I love, love, love using Bundy at just $7,700 in the room Angels Stadium to slay the Rangers.
Other notable favorite: Dustin May ($9,700; -200) vs. Seattle Mariners
Highest Projected Total
San Francisco Giants (-118; 4.5 runs) at Philadelphia Phillies (EV; 3.5 runs) 8.5 runs — We have a number of games in the eight run range for game totals tonight. The Giants and Phillies had the most juice on the over at -113, so that’s what we’ll talk about. The Giants are slight favorites in this one against Chase Anderson ($6,800), who’ll be making his third start. He’s been “meh” against the Mets twice, allowing four runs on five hits with six strikeouts and five walks through nine innings.
The Giants offense has done well against lefties but no so much righties. On the year against righties, they have just a .279 wOBA, a .140 ISO and a 30.2% K%, which is the highest in the league. While I’m not going out of my way to target the Giants, Anderson does have a devilish 6.66 FIP compared to his 4.00 ERA, so he clearly has gotten a bit lucky that he hasn’t given up more offense.
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Chase Anderson, .431, 6.62
Dustin May, .336, 6.19
Jack Flaherty, .327, 5.15
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Justus Sheffield, .192, 2.38
Brandon Woodruff, .256, 3.26
Kevin Gausman, .286, 3.03
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Chase Anderson, .397, 5.84
Danny Duffy, .336, 5.00
Joe Musgrove, .333, 2.57
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dustin May, .226, 3.19
Dylan Bundy, .230, 1.60
Jack Flaherty, .265, 2.86
Pitcher to Build Around
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers $10,200 — Pairing Bundy with Musgrove is where I would look to attack this slate with pitching. I was a firm believer that Musgrove was one of the most underrated moves of the offseason and he’s showing that thus far. Through three starts he’s allowed ONE total run through 19 innings. Add that with 24 strikeouts, a 1.73 FIP and a 14.0% swing-and-miss rate and it’s hard to find blemishes on his early Padres career. The Brewers have cut down on the strikeouts a bit against righties but still have a 25.5% K% with a .285 wOBA and a .133 ISO. This is an excellent spot for Musgrove and I have no qualms about paying up for him, especially with how cheap Bundy is.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $5,800 — I don’t think anyone has to tell you to play Soto but I’ll do it anyways. On paper, it doesn’t look like a great matchup against Jack Flaherty ($8,500) who should have won the Cy Young in 2019 but whatever. However, since the beginning of 2020, Flaherty has a .315 wOBA with a 4.80 FIP and 1.6 HR/9. If you focus on 2020, those numbers against lefties get worse with a .327 wOBA and a 5.15 FIP! While the power for Soto against righties hasn’t really shown up yet, as he only has one extra base hit against them, the matchup is an excellent one overall.
Save Big by Drafting
Hanser Alberto, Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $3,000 — Alberto is one of those guys I’ll scoop up whenever I see he’s facing a lefty. He doesn’t boast a ton of power but the guy simply gets on base against them. At just $3K, I’ll be doing so again tonight. Since last season, Alberto has a .343 wOBA and a 118 wRC+ in these matchups. It’s nothing overly impressive but again, he’s $3K in a matchup he has consistently done well in. If you need to save some of that green, Alberto is a way to do so.
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