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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Brewers vs. Padres Showdown on April 19

Garion Thorne gives his top lineup advice for Monday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Brewers and Padres, which starts at 10:10 p.m. ET.

You never quite know what you’re going to get with a random Showdown slate in April, but we happened to luck our way into a playoff-caliber pitching matchup this evening between the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres. Just how good have Brandon Woodruff ($10,800) and Joe Musgrove ($11,400) been to start 2021? Well, through their last four starts combined, the duo have surrendered just eight opponents hits over 26.0 innings.

Who would you rather build your lineup around on Monday? Let’s break it all down.


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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Joe Musgrove ($17,100 CP) - It’s just impossible to fade Musgrove on this slate. The right-hander has been arguably the best non-Corbin Burnes pitcher in baseball through the first three weeks of the season, sitting third in the league in xFIP (1.86) and fourth in K%-BB% (32.8%), all while allowing an average opponent launch angle of 4.4 degrees. So, basically, even if you’ve lucky enough to produce a batted ball event against Musgrove, it’s more than likely you’ve hit a weak ground ball to the second baseman. Plus, when directly comparing the matchup for each of tonight’s starters, Musgrove has the obvious advantage. Milwaukee’s offense has looked better the past week, yet it still ranks 28th in MLB with a .342 slugging percentage off of RHPs — and that’s including the contributions of Christian Yelich (back). It’s a hefty price, but Musgrove should be worth it.

Brandon Woodruff ($16,200 CP) - Musgrove is option No. 1 on this slate, but that doesn’t mean for a second that Woodruff isn’t viable. Though the Brewers’ RHP doesn’t have a no-hitter to his name in 2021, Woodruff has also begun this season on quite the roll, striking out 29.2% of opponents and being the lone qualified pitcher in the National League to not yet concede a barrelled BBE. Really, Woodruff’s only fault on Monday isn’t even something within his control. Though the Padres have been a little cold with the bats so far in April — at least compared to our perceptions of their lineup — they do have the lowest swinging strike rate in the NL (8.7%). It’s going to be difficult for Woodruff to truly reach his ceiling against a team that makes so much contact.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (MIL vs SD)


UTIL Plays

Daniel Vogelbach ($5,800) - Value is the name of the game if you’re looking to roll with both starters this evening, so be prepared to go picking through the DFS dumpster with someone like Vogelbach. The former All-Star — it’s still crazy to say that — is coming off a two home run day on Sunday; yet, for clarity, Vogelbach came into that eventual 6-5 loss with two hits in his first 22 plate appearances of the season. The power does provide a ceiling, even if the floor is cavernous. Anyway, Vogelbach’s hit second in all five games he’s started in 2021. That’s obviously a premium lineup position, especially for an asset this inexpensive.

Billy McKinney ($4,800) - Again, this isn’t exactly an ideal play, but McKinney’s about as cheap as you’re going to be able to go on this slate, and he’s not completely useless. It’s been the former Yankee farmhand who’s mostly inherited the playing time in left field with Yelich sidelined, and McKinney responded by slashing a respectable .320/.346/.400 in 26 plate appearances. McKinney also sported a .207 ISO in his 84 games with the Blue Jays in 2019, so it’s not as if he’s completely devoid of power.


Fades

Keston Hiura ($8,600) - You’ll notice that both of the value options I presented above were left-handed. That was very much intentional. While it’s generally a good rule of thumb to try and take advantage of as many opposite-hand matchups as possible, that credo is amplified when discussing Musgrove. To wit, the RHP has faced 21 right-handed batters so far this season and has yet to allow a hit. It’s also not exactly promising that Hiura has the third-lowest qualified contact rate in baseball (59.6%). Opponents have clearly found the many holes in the 24-year-old’s swing and he hasn’t been able to adjust so far in 2021.


THE OUTCOME

The total for this contest on the DraftKings Sportsbook is microscopic at just 6.5 runs, but I think I have to side with the under. Both these pitchers have looked un-hittable at points during the 2021 season and it’s not as if either lineup has looked amazing. On top of all that, Milwaukee is 12-2 to the under in its past 14 road games, while the under is 8-1 in San Diego’s last nine home matchups.

Final Score: San Diego 3, Milwaukee 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (MIL vs SD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


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