Opening Day came and went yesterday and so have my intros. So just move on and read.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trevor Bauer, $10,500, Los Angeles Dodgers (-265) at Colorado Rockies (+215) — This game not only features the biggest favorite on the slate but also the highest projected total at 12 runs. The DraftKings Sportsbook isn’t giving the Rockies much of a chance in this one, as the Dodgers also have a projected team total of 7.5 runs. Antonio Senzatela ($6,200) is taking the mound but he was arguably one of the Rockies best starters in 2020. At home, he posted a very impressive .261 wOBA with a 2.99 FIP, which is quite the feat at Coors Field. With that said, this Dodgers lineup is extremely potent and the Rockies bullpen projects to be one of the worst in the league.
As for Bauer, he’s coming off his 2020 Cy Young campaign with the Reds and making his first start as a Dodger. His numbers from last year were stellar, but I also think it’s worth taking a hard look at his schedule and really asking if it was more of the talent or the opposition. When his first nine starts included the Tigers, Brewers, Cubs and Pirates twice along with the Royals, the competition wasn’t exactly daunting. This Rockies team is going to be pesky, not powerful but pesky. This slate isn’t exactly filled with tons of options that I want to play so Bauer is likely going to find his way in lineups by default. The strikeout upside is here but I can’t say I’m overjoyed to spend over five figures for a pitcher in Coors.
Other notable favorites: Blake Snell ($9,700; -230) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Highest Projected Total
Los Angeles Dodgers (-265; 7.5 runs ) at Colorado Rockies (+215; 4.5 runs )
Chicago White Sox (EV; 4.5 runs ) at Los Angeles Angels (-115; 4.5 runs ) — Yes, Coors Field has the highest projected total but we touched on that game already. Let’s look into another game with a high total, as the White Sox at Angels is currently set at -120 for over 8.5 runs.
This game features two lefties taking the mound in Dallas Keuchel ($8,700) for the Sox and Andrew Heaney ($7,600) for the Halos. The White Sox were a VERY good hitting club against lefties this season, which has me siding with them. Last year, they finished with a .376 wOBA (2nd) a .238 ISO (1st) and a .364 OBP (2nd) against southpaws. Both Tim Anderson ($5,500) and Jose Abreu ($5,800) specifically annihilated lefties last year. Anderson was not on the same planet as everyone else with his .606 wOBA, .551 ISO and 299 wRC+. Abreu “only” produced a .365 wOBA with a .308 ISO and a 134 wRC+. Aside from them, the White Sox have huge power against lefties, which should gel well against a pitcher like Heaney. His past struggles with home runs and consistently giving up hard contact will be tough to overcome against this lineup.
No weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Johnny Cueto, .347, 4.45
Cristian Javier, .332, 5.42
Antonio Senzatela, .315, 4.80
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Merrill Kelly, .227, 3.74
Trevor Bauer, .258, 3.90
Blake Snell, .288, 3.34
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jesus Luzardo, .326, 4.68
Blake Snell, .320, 4.73
Andrew Heaney, .306, 4.30
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Trevor Bauer, .192, 1.76
Cristian Javier, .208, 4.34
Pablo Lopez, .241, 2.91
Pitcher to Build Around
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $9,700 — Give the Diamondbacks credit, they gave Yu Darvish a run for his money in his Padres debut on Thursday. Can they do the same to Snell tonight? I’m going to side with “nah, fam.”
The Diamondbacks are simply not a team built to hit left-handed pitchers. Last season they produced just a .291 wOBA (26th), a .133 ISO (28th) and a 78 wRC+ (26th). It’s not as if they did much in the offseason to improve either. I went through the Spring Training lineups when they faced lefties and found the one they’ll most likely roll with. If I’m correct, they’ll feature FIVE players with a .152 ISO or less against lefties from last season. Carson Kelly (.152), Eduardo Escobar (.098), Josh VanMeter (.091), David Peralta (.065) and Josh Rojas (.000). To their credit, we don’t have a ton of strikeout potential with the D-Backs but the pickings are also quite slim on this slate. Looking at a team with very little power, this is the more enticing matchup to target against.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels, $5,800 — I’m climbing the ladder at first base and paying up for my guy Abreu. He simply is a massive power threat day in and day out no matter who he’s facing. As mentioned earlier, he posted a stellar .365 wOBA with a .308 ISO and a 134 wRC+ against lefties last season. On the surface, Heaney had a decent season for the Halos but I see stats like his 4.30 FIP and a 1.57 HR/9 against righties and it has me turning to someone like Abreu. With a massive total over at Coors Field as well, Abreu may not get the attention he would usually garner.
Save Big by Drafting
Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $3,400 — When you’re near the bottom of the list looking for some value, Cooper’s name doesn’t exactly jump off the page. However, you’d be surprised how well he’s done against lefties. Despite playing in four seasons, Cooper has only logged 169 total games. With that said, he has a career .338 wOBA with a .217 ISO, nine of his 21 home runs and a 114 wRC+. With the ability to use him either at first base or the outfield, you can lock him in against Ryan Yarbrough ($8,300), who relies on contact for outs.
Favorite Team To Stack
San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners (vs. Yusei Kikuchi) — The Giants gave the Mariners a game last night but the future AL West winners pulled out the victory. Let it be known, however, that the Giants are going to be a problem against opposing lefties.
Aside from Giants fans, it was easy to ignore this team last season. What you would have missed though was the .358 wOBA, .221 ISO and 127 wRC+ they posted against lefties. That trend continued last night, tagging Macro Gonzales for five runs on eight hits, including three home runs. This is a perfect team to stack if you’re looking to get some Dodgers bats or pay up at pitcher this evening. Guys like Wilmer Flores ($3,700) Austin Slater ($3,500) Mike Yastrzemski ($5,000) and Alex Dickerson ($3,400) all had AT LEAST a .273 ISO against lefties last season.
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