Well, hello there! Looks like you’re looking to make some money before the weekend begins? Great! Let me see if I can assist. With that in mind, here are my favorite MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
So here you are, looking for some guidance for this evening an I slap you with a damn Giants bet. Hopefully, I haven’t lost you already but at least understand my reasoning before you tweet (@SBuchanan24) me and tell me you can’t believe I do this for a living.
The Giants going to be a PROBLEM for opposing lefties and we already saw a glimpse of it last night. Against lefty Marco Gonzales, the Giants tagged him for five runs on eight hits through six innings. It makes sense, honestly, because this Giants team did this all season long in 2020 against lefties. Fun fact, they were THIRD in the league in runs scored against lefties last season with 321. When it comes to team stats, they boasted a .352 wOBA, a .201 ISO and a 123 wRC+. So believe me, this wasn’t just a fluke last night.
Now don’t get me wrong, Yusei Kikuchi took a major step forward last season but his command was a problem. This Giants team will not be afraid to take a walk, as shown by the teams .347 OBP last season. They drew four total last night and then knocked in those players en route to posting seven total. At 3.5 runs, this total seems too low to ignore.
If this wasn’t at plus money, I likely would have ignored it. However, I do think there is some value here at +102 to give this a look.
Cristian Javier is taking the mound after a decent rookie campaign in 2020. His biggest issue was home runs, allowing 11 through 54 1/3 innings, which averaged out to a 1.82 HR/9. Lefties were also a problem, tagging him with a .332 wOBA, a 5.42 FIP, seven of those home runs and a 33% hard-hit rate. The A’s aren’t as loaded on lefties as they’ve been in the past but they did add Mitch Moreland, a huge power threat, to the mix.
Javier throughout the minors struggled with him command. It didn’t necessarily translate to his pitching last season but it’s something worth considering. The Astros bullpen, however, did put on a ton of baserunners with a combined 12.4% BB%, the second highest in the league. With all this considered, I don’t hate getting slightly plus odds on hitting the over on their team total.
When I originally looked on the main DraftKings Sportsbook MLB lobby, this game had an over/under of eight runs. I would love to get this total at 8.5, so I ventured over to the Alternate Run Line section to get it. You’re paying a tiny bit more for the half run (o/u 8.0 -118) but I think it’s worth it.
This Diamondbacks team has almost NO power against lefties. I looked at one of their most recent Spring Training lineups against lefties and ran the numbers from last season. Can you believe that they could potentially have FIVE starters tonight that had an isolated power of no more than .152!? I mean, here it is in black and white
Carson Kelly (.152),
Eduardo Escobar (.098),
Josh VanMeter (.091),
David Peralta (.065)
Josh Rojas (.000)
Well, unless you’re betting the under on the total. Blake Snell is taking the mound for the Padres and has already been quoted on how much he loves the “new” baseball, as it really helps his offspeed pitches. Not that I really take much stock into Spring Training stats but Snell DID pitch 14 1/3 innings, allowing no runs on on five hits and 13 strikeouts. Take that as you please.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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