It’s been a tremendous tournament thus far, and we’ve trimmed the field down to the Final Four, which tips off on Saturday night. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston vs. Baylor: BAY -5 (-113)
Nice run by the Cougars here, but let’s be honest, they made it out of their bracket by facing light competition. In fact, this Houston team is the first ever to reach a Final Four by beating all double-digit seeds along the way. Then we look at the regular season, where Houston’s only real test was facing Texas Tech, which it beat, but it’s the only other time this season the Cougars have been an underdog. Houston is a solid team, but they haven’t seen anything close to the Bears this season. This isn’t a team like Oregon State, where the Cougars can rip down 19 offensive rebounds and shoot a lower percentage from the field, yet still somehow win.
Baylor’s three-headed monster at guard should prove too much in this game, and I’ll give the Bears the advantage on the interior, too. Baylor won a Sweet 16 game by double-digits in which it was down seven at halftime and shooting 3-of-19 from downtown. Mitchell is just too much getting to the rim in crunch time, and I trust Baylor to get the job done here by more than five.
Mitchell is the engine that makes this Baylor squad go, and he’s averaging 5.3 assists on the season. He’s averaging 4.8 assists in the tournament, but that includes just two in the aforementioned Sweet 16 game where Baylor couldn’t hit a shot for its life. The ball will be in his hands, and I think backing him to get five or more assists in the prop market is a strong play.
I’ll admit, I thought there was a chance Gonzaga might be tested in the Elite Eight. If you blinked at the start of that game, you missed the Bulldogs jumping out to a 17-4 lead, and it was never close again. Props to what UCLA has accomplished to this point — if you’ve read this article, the Bruins have cost us money in each of the last two rounds — but the run ends here, and it’s probably going to get ugly quickly. The Zags are 4-0 ATS in the tournament, but they’ve also covered the first half line in every game of this run. The 14-point spread in this game is the largest in Final Four history, and while I like the Zags to cover it, I’d rather invest in this getting out of control early.
Timme has been spectacular throughout this run to the Final Four, scoring 30, 22 and 23 points in each of the last three games — he only played 22 minutes in the first round. If he found his was to 23 points against the Mobley brothers, there just isn’t a big that can stop him. UCLA has a small team and Timme should continue to feast for another 20-plus point game on Saturday.
Parlay of the Day: Baylor ML/Gonzaga 1H ML (-127)
This might be my favorite play of the weekend. Not much additional analysis needed, but I’d consider the Zags 1H ML pretty much a free square in a parlay. So if you are nervous about the points with Baylor, this gets us a nice number on the ML for the full game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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