After a ho-hum Monday, we’re back with a vengeance on the diamond with a loaded 16-game slate, including a doubleheader in Oakland. There’s value across the board with so many games near a pick ‘em, but I see some teams that should enter as heavier favorites. With that in mind, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Cubs are going to lose. Yes, I realize they’re going to win some games despite how terrible they are, but this is not one of them. That’s partly due to their horrific offense — which ranks second-to-last in contact rate and third-worst in strikeout rate — as it has failed to produce with any level of consistency so far in 2021.
It’s also partly due to the pitching matchup. Jake Arrieta has been incredibly fortunate to have the start he’s had, stranding an insane 78.7% of the runners he’s allowed on base. Statcast expects his ERA to sit at 5.27, yet he’s at 3.18. His luck may just run out against a Mets lineup that’s starting to hit its stride, and Taijuan Walker should shut down these whiff-happy hitters with his plus swing-and-miss stuff.
I am sorry if I offend any Luis Castillo fans out there, but he does not appear to be good anymore. Things can obviously change in the span of a year, but I’m going to judge him based on who he’s been so far. He’s a shell of who he was in 2017, losing almost 2.0 mph on his four-seam fastball velocity from 2020 to 2021 and ranking in the 31st percentile in whiff rate as a result. On the other side of the coin, Zac Gallen has just continued to trend in the right direction and holds a career 6.5% barrel rate and .293 xwOBA. He seems to get better with every start, and he should emerge the victor here as he continues on with his stellar season.
The Giants do not have a good lineup, ranking all the way down in 27th with a 75 wRC+ against right-handers, and solely the return of Buster Posey won’t help them ascend up the leaderboard. It especially won’t happen on Tuesday, when San Francisco takes on one of the game’s better righties in Zack Wheeler, who sparkled twice against a strong Braves lineup before a hiccup against the Mets — who at this point have seen him enough to know how to get to him. His whiff rate is down, but the Giants are hardly an imposing offense when they make contact with just 13.8% of their swings resulting in hard-hit balls. I’ll take the better starting pitcher here at what’s a pretty nice price.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.