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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 21

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Baseball is happening all throughout the day and this article will cover the games starting at 6:10 p.m. ET. Ok?

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.

Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the White Sox and Cleveland has been postponed due to inclement weather.

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tyler Mahle, $9,500, Cincinnati Reds (-175) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks,(+155) — Important to note this is technically game two of the day but it’s not considered a double-header. They’ll be resuming last night’s game which was suspended due to weather.

Mahle has been fantastic through his first three starts of the year, allowing just three runs on seven hits while striking out 22 through 14 innings of work. One of those games did include the Diamondbacks, where he only went four innings but gave up no runs and struck out six. Mahle’s numbers across the board are impressive with his 3.29 FIP, a 39.3% K% and only a 29.6% hard-hit rate allowed. They did score five runs last night but an early Reds error lead to only three of them being earned. The D-Backs are not an offense to fear and if Mahle continues to pitch as well as he has, he could easily be one of the top pitchers on this slate. Not like we have a lot of choices to begin with.

Other notable favorite: David Peterson ($9,800; -137) vs. Chicago Cubs

Highest Projected Total

Toronto Blue Jays (+102; 4.5 runs) at Boston Red Sox (-118; 4.5 runs) 10 runs — Offense will most certainly be abundant in this game with Trent Thornton ($6,600) opening for Anthony Kay ($6,000) against Garrett Richards ($7,000). We haven’t seen much of Kay this season but we can refer back to 2020 and how much he struggled. His command was the biggest issue, posting a 6.0 BB/9 through 21 innings of work. Putting men on base would subsequently be a big issue for him, a situation he had a 7.26 FIP in. He’s only thrown 38 1/3 innings in his career and we don’t have many positives to look toward. Against this offense that is firing on all cylinders, this should be a tough spot for Kay. Facing lefties, the Red Sox currently have a a .329 wOBA, a .183 ISO and a 111 wRC+.

As for Richards, the beginning of his Red Sox career has been easily forgettable. His 5.32 FIP is slightly lower than his 6.00 ERA, so it’s not as if he’s been getting unlucky. He also has been struggling with his command and already has seven walks in 12 innings. The only glimmer of hope for Richards is that the Blue Jays are very right-handed heavy, a split he performs better in. Lefties are the ones getting the best of him and they Blue Jays don’t have many to throw at him. Regardless, this is likely heading toward a very high-scoring game and one you’d want to get a piece of. The Red Sox are currently 10-8 at hitting the over while the Blue Jays are one of the league’s worst at 5-12.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]

Weather Notes

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians- 13mph winds blowing in from left field.
Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees- 17mph winds blowing out toward right field.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox - Potential light rain throughout the evening. 13mph winds blowing out toward right field.

Splits to Start

These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jakob Junis, .430, 6.99
Garrett Richards, .365, 5.38
Mitch Keller, .358, 8.44

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ian Anderson, .201, 1.75
Zach Davies, .222, 3.34
Merrill Kelly, .227, 3.74

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Michael Wacha, .445, 6.19
Aaron Civale, .397, 4.85
Jakob Junis, .354, 5.13

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Garrett Richards, .258, 3.27
Ian Anderson, .269, 3.46
Tyler Mahle, .295, 3.15

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $9,500 — We went with Luis Castillo last night and that wasn’t great. A first run error didn’t help matters either but wah, wah, wah, excuses, excuses. I do like Mahle a lot tonight going against the same team in their “Game 2” tonight. As mentioned above, his numbers have been fantastic this season and faces a D-Backs team with just a .299 wOBA, a .152 ISO, an 86 wRC+ and a 24.5% K% against righties. With not much to pay for on this slate at pitching, Mahle sticks out like a sore thumb.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,500 — Bogaerts has been an on-base machine this season and now draws a very favorable matchup, at home against the lefty Kay. He’s been on a different level against lefties to begin with but when you mix in the numbers specifically at home, they’re massive. Since 2019 against lefties at Fenway, Bogaerts has a .361 wOBA, a .217 ISO and a 119 wRC+. He’s only had 25 plate appearances against lefties in 2021 but already has a .442 wOBA, a .217 ISO and a 189 wRC+. Simply said, this is his matchup.

Save Big by Drafting

Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, $2,300 — Not a ton of value on this slate overall so I found myself going way down the board. Kiermaier has looked good since being activated off the injured list due to a quad issue. In four games since, he’s averaged 6.5 DKFP with four hits, a double and two RBI. He’ll face Jakob Junis ($6,400), who against lefties has a has a .353 wOBA with a 4.50 FIP and a 42.5% hard-hit rate since 2019. The beauty of rostering Kiermaier is that he doesn’t have to do much to reach value at near the stone minimum in pricing.

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