After all these teeny tiny slates, we actually have a monster one for Friday. We slay monsters here.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacob deGrom, $10,900, New York Mets (-315) vs. Washington Nationals (+260) — No surprise to see deGrom as the big favorite tonight, especially going against the Nationals. They’ve been one of the worst offenses in the league against righties even BEFORE you take Juan Soto’s numbers out of the mix. When you subtract his, the Nats have just a .289 wOBA, a .125 ISO and a 79 wRC+ against righties. They aren’t striking out a ton with just a 21.7% K%, but when has that really mattered against deGrom? He’s struck out nearly half the batters he’s faced in three starts, sporting a 48.6% K% and an absurd 23.2% swing-and-miss rate.
Tonight features three pitchers over $10K to roster, making it a tough decision where to land. In terms of matchup, deGrom owns the most favorable. Clayton Kershaw ($10,200) is taking on the Padres while CYler Glasnow ($10,100) (typo intended) faces the Blue Jays. While I do like Glasnow a lot (more on him later) it’s hard to ignore just how dominant deGrom has been, allowing just one earned run through 20 innings of work. His 1.35 FIP 8.8% barrel rate and 29.4% hard-hit rate are all simply amazing.
Other notable favorite: Huascar Ynoa ($7,500; -177) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Highest Projected Total
Philadelphia Phillies (EV; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (-113; 5.5 runs) 10.5 runs — First and foremost, I will never be backing the Rockies as favorites, ever. I don’t care if they win this game 23-1, I have more interest in attending a tennis matchup than taking the Rockies.
Anyways, this total has bounced up and down between 10.5 and 11 runs since opening last night. It’s been tough to hit these over/unders with the Coors Field games because the Rockies offense is THAT bad. Even at Coors, this offense has just a 73 wRC+, which is telling. Sure the other numbers are fine with a .320 wOBA and a .221 ISO but this has not been a strong offense at all. The wrinkle in all this is that they’ll face Vincent Velasquez ($5,900), who I can’t believe the Phillies keep deploying. Last season as a starter, Velasquez had a .350 wOBA, a 4.06 FIP and a 1.5 HR/9. Not exactly a pitcher you’re worried about.
I’m pretty torn on this total overall, as the Phillies road woes have been extremely prevalent thus far as well. It’s a crap answer but I don’t have a good feel for this game and would steer clear from taking the total.
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Casey Mize, .439, 8.83
Luke Weaver, .405, 6.32
Vince Velasquez, .390, 5.09
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Greinke, .234, 1.61
J.A. Happ, .252, 4.10
Erick Fedde, .255, 5.50
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Steven Matz, .448, 8.94
Erick Fedde, .377, 6.70
Huascar Ynoa, .373, 4.38
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dane Dunning, .204, 3.35
Sandy Alcantara, .215, 2.77
Jacob deGrom, .221, 1.50
Pitcher to Build Around
He’ll look like the future Cy Young winner tonight against the Blue Jays, whom he’ll face for the first time this season. In his first four starts, Glasnow has a 40% K%, a 1.03 FIP (!) and a 16.5% swing-and-miss rate. The Blue Jays are on the lower end of K% in the league at 23.7% (20th) but also have just a .292 wOBA, a .134 ISO and a 85 wRC+ against righties. Glasnow’s arsenal features a fastball (57.5%) and a slider (27.8%) as his two main pitches. Against those two pitches, the Blue Jays rank 23rd and 18th respectively. Oh and when he mixes in his curveball, he’s generated a 48.9% whiff rate on that pitch.
He’s the “cheapest” of the $10K pitchers of the night and he’ll be where I’m focused on as my SP1.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, $5,000 — The Athletics can’t be stopped right now, which is unfortunate because it’s taking the spotlight away from the stud Mariners. From a daily fantasy perspective, however, it’s something to target. Olson will face off against Jorge Lopez ($6,000) who is another pitcher I cannot believe is still in the majors. He’s had immense amount of issues against lefties which we can share. Dating back to last season, Lopez has allowed a .367 wOBA, a 6.62 FIP and a 2.6 HR/9 to lefties.
As for Olson, all he’s done against righties is post a .495 wOBA, a .381 ISO and five of his six home runs so far this season. The beauty of all this is that the majority of his games have come in Oakland. Now he’ll play in the Little League sized Camden Yards. It’s the chefs kiss on top of the matchup.
Save Big by Drafting
Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals, $3,300 — Don’t look now but Schoop is heating uppppppp. Ideally, you want to get Schoop in your lineup when he’s going against a lefty, which is exactly what he gets tonight against Mike Minor ($6,900). His 15 2⁄3 innings as a Royal have been nothing short of forgettable, facing the Rangers, White Sox and Blue Jays. Minor has already been tagged for nine runs on 15 hits with only 12 strikeouts. Schoop has had some sneaky power against lefties in his career and is a perfect salary saver to target.
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