The name of this article is MLB Best Bets. So I will give you my best bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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The A’s will have the benefit of facing Jorge Lopez, who has allowed 13 runs on 13 hits through 13 2⁄3 innings in three starts. He was cruising in his last start against the Rangers before they took him deep twice and worked him up to 75 pitches in five innings. That’s essentially what Lopez does, throws a ton of pitches early and rarely goes deep into games. In fact, Lopez is averaging 73 pitches in his first three starts and hasn’t pitched more than five innings.
Lopez continues to struggle with home runs, having allowed five already. Only one of these starts have come at home, which is not a park you want to have this problem. Now he faces an A’s team that is hitting a ton of fly balls (38%, 8th) and making plenty of hard contact (34.1%, 5th). They come into this game riding their 11-game winning streak and are averaging 5.2 runs per game in that span. Asking them to go over 4.5 runs against Lopez and this Orioles bullpen doesn’t feel like a tall task.
If you want to make a small play on Matt Olson to hit a home run +275, I don’t hate that either.
This is an interesting play because I have full faith in CYler Glasnow. He’s been nothing but dominant in his starts and has allowed a total of two runs in 24 2⁄3 innings. This is already his fifth start of the season and opposing hitters simply haven’t been able to touch him. With this in mind, the idea that the Rays will score first is an enticing option to consider, especially at -109.
The Rays have also been a great team scoring early. Through the first five innings, they average just under three runs at 2.95, which ranks them fifth in the league. Steven Matz has been good so far in a Blue Jays uniform but if I’m choosing who I think will be scored against first, it certainly isn’t going to be Glasnow. Coming into this game, the Rays own a 114 wRC+ (9th) against lefties, which further makes me like this play.
As I write this, the prop for Glasnow’s strikeouts is yet to be posted. If I had to guess, I would think the total would be set at 7.5. If it is, I would be inclined to take the over. Any number higher than that, I would steer clear.
I really like taking the over on this total with the Indians facing off against Jordan Montgomery. He hasn’t looked like someone I should be fading after giving up eight runs on 11 hits, including four home runs through 17 innings. The Indians are a sneaky team against lefties and I feel as if they can hit the over on this total.
Believe it or not, the Indians are third in the league in runs scored against lefties with 35. It’s quite remarkable when you consider they have a 99 wRC+ and a .313 wOBA. The big number here is the .196 ISO, which ranks seventh. That’s in big part because the Indians lead the league in home runs against lefties with 13. Montgomery has struggled with this in his career and his 2.12 HR/9 in 2021 is a good indicator.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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