We’ve got a matchup between two Western Conference teams who are both in the playoff picture, although one is on the fringes of the play-in tournament. The Denver Nuggets are 38-20 (third in the Western Conference) on the season and 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Golden State Warriors are 29-30 (10th in the Western Conference) on the season and have won six of their last 10. Denver is 18-10 on the road, while Golden State is 17-10 at home. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Nuggets favored. Denver is 28th in pace, while Golden State is second, so this should be an interesting battle of styles. These teams have met twice this season, with the Nuggets winning 114-104 at home back in January and the Warriors winning 116-107 on their home court in April.
Let’s break down this Showdown contest on DraftKings.
Nikola Jokic ($19,200 CP) - The Captain options are straightforward for this slate. Jokic averages 1.60 DKFP per minute. The floor/ceiling combo is one of the best in the game. He’s scored fewer than 50.0 DKFP in only 14 of 58 games. He’s gone for at least 70.0 DKFP in 11 games with a high of 88.5 DKFP. He literally does it all and contributes the fantasy goodies in a variety of ways. Since Jamal Murray (knee) went down with an injury, the usage rate has spiked 4%. It’s a pace-up game for Jokic and the Warriors boost the fantasy points per minute to centers by 3.44% above league average. In two prior meetings with the Warriors this season, Jokic went for 64.5 DKFP and 58.0 DKFP.
Stephen Curry ($18,600 CP) - Curry averages 1.48 DKFP per minute. He is coming off a 38.75 DKFP performance in which he shot 7-for-25 from the field and 2-for-14 from downtown. It happens to the best of them. Prior to that, though, he went for over 60.0 DKFP in four of five games. He scored over 40 real points in three of those games, including a 53-point explosion against the Nuggets. In two meetings with Denver this season, Curry has gone for 69.0 DKFP and 58.25 DKFP.
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PJ Dozier ($3,800) - The Nuggets backcourt has been depleted with the injuries to Murray and Monte Morris (hamstring). Both are out for this game. Since Murray went down four games ago, Dozier has played 28, 24, 37 and 25 minutes, contributing 30.5 DKFP, 18.5 DKFP, 24.25 DKFP and 22.75 DKFP. The usage rate has been 19%, 16%, 28% and 18%, so he’s involved when on the floor. He’s just too cheap for the minutes and usage he should get in this one.
Will Barton ($7,000) - Over the last two games, Barton has played 34 and 44 minutes. He’s attempted 13 and 19 shots, respectively, and produced 28.5 DKFP and 52.0 DKFP. His usage rate has been 24% and 23%. He only went for 17.75 DKFP and 11.75 DKFP in the two games prior to this recent run of success, but those were blowouts, so he didn’t get his full run. This game is in San Francisco and the spread is small, so it should be competitive and Barton should get his full allotment of minutes. If so, he should produce in what is a pace-up affair for him.
Michael Porter Jr. ($9,600) - I love the player, but hate the price. Barton could match or exceed Porter’s output with a price tag $2,600 cheaper. The usage rate has only been 18% and 17% in Porter’s last two games, while he’s played 31 and 43 minutes. He’s contributed 26.25 DKFP and 34.25 DKFP over that span and has exceeded 40.0 DKFP just three times in his past 11 games.
For full transparency, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predicting outcomes, so you may want to go Costanza on me. If that doesn’t work, then Costanza the Costanza.
This should be an up-and-down affair with the home team dictating the pace. The O/U is a healthy 229.5. I love home dogs, especially when Stephen Curry is the leader of the pack. I like Curry to bounce-back from his awful shooting night on Wednesday and lead the Warriors to victory.
Final Score: Golden State 115, Denver 112
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (DEN vs GSW)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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