The NBA is the Wild West right now with COVID-19 and the league’s health protocols, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t edges to be had. Now sitting at 63-55-2 on article plays this season, let’s look to finish the week strong.
Follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow — for what we hope to be another great season, as some plays jump out late due to news, particularly in the player prop market. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Did we bet Tatum O28.5 points last night? Yup. Did we miss by a mile? Yup. But I’m just clearing my brain and going right back to it in an even stronger spot.
Here’s some analysis from betting Tatum’s point prop on Thursday, with Jaylen Brown ruled out — Brown’s missed five games so far this season, with Tatum averaging 33.2 points. For comparison, Tatum averages 25 points in the 47 games he’s shared the floor with JB. Most recently, we saw Tatum really dominate on Saturday night with Brown sidelined, finishing with 44 points against the Warriors.
What I failed to mention in that analysis was that Tatum was a dreadful 3-for-17 from the field in Monday’s loss to the Bulls, and was surely due for a bounce-back game. So he wound up shooting exactly 3-of-17 again. In Brown’s absence, it was Kemba Walker that stole the show, dropping 32 points on an efficient 11-of-17 from the field.
With Brown and Walker both ruled out on Friday in Brooklyn, I’m sticking to my guns here after a couple of poor showings. Due for a bounce-back from his 6-for-34 shooting since his 44-point outburst on Saturday, Tatum’s going to get all the looks he can handle here in a nationally televised game against the title favorites.
This is a huge game in the Southeast Division, with both teams currently neck and neck. While I expect both teams not to rest anyone, the Hawks are dealing with legitimate injuries to their top end talent. Both Trae Young and Clint Capela were injured during Wednesday’s loss to the Knicks — Young’s going to miss multiple games, while Capela remains questionable heading into Friday. That’s enough for me to lay the points with Miami, with no reason Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo won’t be on the floor giving it their all. This is almost a throw the numbers out the window kind of game, but here’s the type of edge we should expect to see with Young out and Butler in. The Hawks are just 5-8 without Young in the lineup, while the Heat are 25-17 with Butler in. Miami has already managed to split the season series 1-1, despite Jimmy not playing in either game. I’m expecting a convincing road win here.
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