Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
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Trevor Bauer, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres ($11,000) – Bauer has gotten off to a phenomenal start in his first season with the Dodgers. He’s pitched to a 2.42 ERA and a 1.89 expected ERA, and he’s added a career-best 12.46 strikeouts per nine innings.
His matchup vs. the Padres on Saturday is far from ideal, but the Padres’ offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders to start the year. They rank 14th in wRC+, and Bauer held them to one run over six innings in his last appearance. Bauer’s opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate, so he stands out from a DraftKings Sportsbook perspective, as well.
Other Options – Blake Snell ($9,400), Aaron Nola ($8,800)
Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins ($7,600) – The other pitcher with an opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs? That would be Gausman, who is taking on the Marlins on Saturday. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 draft has turned things around in San Francisco after a disappointing start to his career in Baltimore, pitching to a 3.62 ERA last season and a 2.45 ERA through his first four starts of 2021. The Marlins have been dreadful to start the year against right-handers, ranking just 26th in wRC+. They also rank dead last in ISO in those matchups, and they’ve struck out at an above-average rate.
Other Options – Drew Smyly ($8,200), Pablo López ($6,900)
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies ($5,300) – Realmuto and the Phillies’ offense disappointed last night at Coors, scoring just four runs in a loss. That said, they’ll get their chance for redemption on Saturday. They have a very exploitable matchup vs. Antonio Senzatela ($5,200), who has pitched to a 5.40 ERA to start the year. He’s also managed a paltry 4.95 strikeouts per nine innings, and I’m pretty sure I rack up more Ks on my slow-pitch softball team. A pitcher who allows that many balls to be put in play is asking for trouble at Coors Field.
Other Options – Carson Kelly ($4,600), Travis d’Arnaud ($4,500)
Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles ($4,100) – Catcher is normally a position where I feel comfortable punting, but there really aren’t any punt plays available on today’s slate. Only three catchers who are currently expected to start cost less than $3,800. With that in mind, Murphy stands out for the A’s. They’re currently implied for 5.4 runs, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. The Orioles didn’t announce that Wade LeBlanc ($6,000) was going going to start this game until Saturday morning, which does not bode well for the Orioles’ ability to keep Oakland off the scoreboard.
Other Options – Pedro Severino ($3,800), José Trevino ($3,200)
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies ($4,800) – Coors Field is obviously going to draw plenty of attention on Saturday, just as it does every time it’s on the slate. The Phillies lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.8 runs, and Hoskins is pretty affordable at $4,800 all things considered. He’s expected to bat second for the Phillies, and he went yard in yesterday’s contest. He’s historically been at his best against left-handed pitchers, but he should still be able to get the best of a mediocre right-hander like Senzatela.
Other Options – Matt Olson ($4,700)
Brad Miller, Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies ($3,400) – Miller is currently questionable, but he’s going to be tough to avoid at $3,400 if he’s in the lineup. Unlike Hoskins, Miller thrives against traditional pitchers, and he’s posted a .372 wOBA and .231 ISO vs. right-handers over the past 12 months.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Miller is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Rockies.
Other Options – C.J. Cron ($4,100), Mitch Moreland ($2,900)
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,000) – The Braves are taking on Madison Bumgarner ($7,200) on Saturday, who has lost his battle with father time. He’s gone from one of the best pitchers in baseball to one of the worst. He posted a 6.48 ERA and 7.18 FIP last season, and he’s posted an 8.68 ERA through his first four starts in 2021.
He has been victimized by right-handed batters in particular over that time frame. Right-handers posted a .404 wOBA against him last year, and they’ve increased that mark to .425 so far this season. Albies is a switch-hitter who has historically fared much better from the right side, so he will have the advantage against Bumgarner on Saturday.
Other Options – Ryan McMahon ($4,900), Jed Lowrie ($4,500)
Tommy La Stella, San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins ($3,700) – La Stella has been out of the lineup each of the past two days for the Giants, but he should be back in the leadoff spot against Lopez on Saturday. La Stella has blossomed into a formidable hitter against right-handed pitchers, posting a .393 wOBA and .203 ISO in those matchups over the past 12 months.
Other Options – Garrett Hampson ($3,600), Nick Madrigal ($3,200)
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies ($3,800) – Third base is not a position where you need to pay up on Saturday. Bohm is very reasonably priced at $3,800 for a matchup in Coors, and while he hasn’t gotten off to a great start this season, he has the pedigree of an elite hitter. He raked throughout his minor league career, and he posted a 139 wRC+ in his first taste of major-league action last season. His Statcast data gives him an expected batting average of .272 this season, so expect improvement from him moving forward.
Other Options – Yoan Moncada ($4,700), Matt Chapman ($4,600)
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,200) – Riley benefits from the same elite matchup as Albies, and he’s displayed solid power against southpaws throughout his career. He’s posted a .196 ISO in those matchups over the past 12 months, so he’s a candidate for a cheap homer vs. Bumgarner.
Other Options – Josh Fuentes ($3,100)
Didi Gregorius, Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies ($4,900) – I’m going to keep hammering the Phillies, who stand out as easily the top team target on Saturday. Gregorius is expected to bat fifth vs. Senzatela, and he’s posted a .369 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. The only shortstop with a better splits-adjusted wOBA on today’s slate is Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,700), but Tatis has a significantly tougher matchup vs. Bauer. That gives Gregorius a clear edge.
Other Options – Tim Anderson ($5,300), Dansby Swanson ($4,000)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants ($4,100) – As a former saxophone player with a picture of John Coltrane on his wall, I’m always going to have a special place in my heart for a man named “Jazz.” That said, there are plenty of reasons why you should like him as well. For starters, he’s absolutely raked to start the year, posting a 182 wRC+ through his first 18 games this season. That number is a bit inflated by a .406 batting average on balls in play, but his .446 expected wOBA is slightly higher than his actual wOBA of .439. That means Jazz is making sweet sounds when he makes contact, so we shouldn’t expect too much regression moving forward.
Other Options – Nick Ahmed ($3,000)
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,200) – Ozuna is arguably the best hitter in Atlanta’s lineup against left-handed pitching, which obviously makes him a strong target vs. Bumgarner. He’s posted a .449 wOBA and .397 ISO in those matchups over the past 12 months, so I will take the slight discount with him compared to Ronald Acuña ($6,400) and Bryce Harper ($6,000).
Other Options – Ronald Acuña ($6,400), Bryce Harper ($6,000), Adam Eaton ($4,400)
DJ Stewart, Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics ($2,900) – Raimel Tapia ($3,000) is probably the top outfielder in this price range, and I’m not sure why DraftKings hasn’t priced him up yet. However, I don’t think you need me to tell you that a leadoff hitter at Coors Field is in play at $3,000.
Instead, let’s talk about Stewart. He’s expected to bat second against right-hander Chris Bassitt ($7,300), and Stewart has performed well against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s posted a .372 wOBA and .255 ISO in those matchups, and he’s posted a 129 wRC+ against right-handers to start the 2021 season.
Other Options – Raimel Tapia ($3,000), Mickey Moniak ($2,600)
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