Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Padres vs. Dodgers Showdown on April 25

Every day, the Dodgers and Padres roll out aces. Every day, the best lineups in baseball step into the box. So far in this series, as is always the case, great pitching beats great hitting. Crooked numbers are still being hung on the board, but it’s respectable. Neither offense has exploded, nor should they have. This should be another night of good baseball on both sides.

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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Captain’s Picks

Joe Musgrove ($15,300 CP) - The Dodgers’ lineup is terrifying, but this series has proven that good pitching beats good hitting. Musgrove is one of the best pitchers in baseball. His follow-up to his no-hitter was slightly disappointing on the surface, but all of his metrics looked good. It was simply a quick hook following a game where he threw a lot of pitches. The real difference this season with Musgrove is his cutter. He threw the pitch 6.4% last season, but now he is using it 24.8% of the time. While it’s not the greatest cutter in baseball, his new pitch mix has made his slider and changeup unhittable. Batters have a .071 wOBA against the slider and a cool .000 wOBA against his changeup.

Fernando Tatis ($13,500) - He’s back. Tatis homered twice on Friday and twice again on Saturday. The truth is that he’s been back for a while. Tatis had an average exit velocity of over 103 mph in four of the five games leading into Friday’s explosion. There’s no question whether Tatis will square up May, but will he get launch on his hits? May has always been a ground-ball pitcher, and this season he’s been exceptional (16.2% fly-ball rate). However, despite those numbers, May allowed two home runs in his last start against the Mariners.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)

Value Plays

Sheldon Neuse ($6,600) - The Dodgers fill spots in their lineups like Amazon fills spots in your cabinet. Neuse got the start on Thursday night, and he homered off of the Padres’ bullpen (best xFIP in MLB at 3.16). Neuse earned another start yesterday and added two more hits and a run to his totals. Over his career (28 plate appearances), Neuse has a .384 wOBA and a 144 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. With roster moves coming on Monday, this will likely be Neuse’s last day with the team and one last opportunity to make an impression.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Sheldon Neuse is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Padres.

Tommy Pham ($5,200) - This is a diamond hands play. Imagine you bought GameStop in 2020 and just patiently waited. That’s Tommy Pham. All of the advanced metrics point toward a major breakout coming soon. His xwOBA is 116 points higher than his actual wOBA, and his BABIP is .222 (it was .178 several days ago). Pham is not due singles, the baseball gods owe him home runs. Pham has six barrels this season, but not one home run. The matchup against May isn’t great, but paper hands do not win Showdown slates.

Fades

Corey Seager ($15,900 CP; $10,600) - Perhaps it is a little too bold to fade one of the best players in baseball, but the price tag should be lower based on the matchup. The lefty vs. righty matchup isn’t a boost against Musgrove. Since the start of last season, Musgrove has a 2.92 xFIP against left-handed batters and has held the opposite side to a .254 wOBA while striking them out at a clip of 34%. Over Seager’s career, he has struggled against cutters, and that’s Musgrove’s new favorite pitch.

The Outcome

Musgrove and Dustin May ($15,600 CP; $10,400) will put on a clinic, but they will not be perfect. Each team will scratch out some runs against the opposing starters and manufacture a couple more against the bullpens. When the dust settles on this instant classic, Musgrove and Tatis will carry the day.

Final Score: Padres 4, Dodgers 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Sunday Night Showdown [$25K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)

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