Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins ($10,400) - One of the best pitchers in baseball is facing one of the worst teams in baseball (Miami vs. RHP: 95 wRC+, .310 wOBA, .140 ISO and 27% K rate). Every stat for Burnes checks out. He’s generating a 19% swinging strike rate and a phenomenal 38% CSW rate (called strikes plus whiffs). When the hitters do manage to put the bat on the ball, they drive it into the ground (2.1-degree launch angle).
Other Options – Trevor Rogers ($8,400)
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants ($6,500) - How long will his luck last? Gomber’s BABIP is .160 and his swing strike rate is 9%. His pitches are finding bats, but he’s gotten away with it so far. As long as his hard contact rate doesn’t go any higher, he’ll be fine. San Francisco is a dream park for the fly ball pitcher, and the matchup is favorable (SF vs LHP - .309 wOBA and 99 wRC+).
Other Options – Charlie Morton ($8,000)
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J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals ($5,200) - Normally, a matchup against Adam Wainwright would be a no-brainer, but Waino has been pretty good against right-handed batters this season. That will end any day now, and Realmuto seems like the right righty to bust him up (vs. RHP in 2021: .390 wOBA and .209 ISO).
Other Options – Willson Contreras ($4,900)
Kyle Higashioka, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles ($3,400) - Matt Harvey (.428 wOBA, .231 ISO, 2.3 HR/9 to right-handed batters between 2020 and 2021) is pitching in a hitter’s ballpark. So, all the Yankees — despite their early season struggles — are in play. Higashioka is a cheap way to get a piece of this game. Against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season, Higashioka has a .405 wOBA, .370 ISO, 163 wRC+, and 47% hard-contact rate.
Other Options – Dom Nunez ($4,400)
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees ($4,400) - There are two questionable pitchers taking the mound in Baltimore. Deivi Garcia has allowed a .344 wOBA, .237 ISO and 2.4 HR/9 to right-handed batters to start 2021. Mancini is looking like he never missed a season. His ISO is .234 vs. right-handed pitching.
Other Options – Yuli Gurriel ($4,600)
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees ($3,400) - The cheaper alternative to Mancini is Mountcastle, who is a lower-priced option that’s getting the same pitching matchup in the same hitter-friendly park. Mountcastle’s numbers aren’t as good, but some of his advanced stats stand out. He hits the ball in the air 57% of the time and 41% of his contact is hard. His batting average is .159, but this is not a singles play. DFS players are looking for a cheap home run potential in a good spot, and Mountcastle has five barrels this season.
Other Options – Brad Miller ($3,200)
Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays ($4,200) - Rich Hill has not pitched well this season (vs. RHB: .399 wOBA, .321 ISO and 2.7 HR/9). Lowrie has hit well this season (vs. LHP: .420 wOBA, 182 wRC+ and 55% hard-contact rate). Lowrie’s approach this season is exactly what DFS players want. He’s not striking out and when he hits the ball, it’s hard and in the air (91.8 mph exit velocity and an 18.7-degree launch angle).
Other Options – DJ LeMahieu ($5,000)
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($2,600) - Before you skip to the next player, hear me out. Carpenter has a .091 BABIP. His xwOBA is .369, but his actual wOBA is .175. He has a 26% barrel rate. His average exit velocity is 95.1 mph with a 22.8-degree launch angle. He is the most unlucky player in baseball. Eventually, these hard hit fly balls will turn into home runs instead of long, loud outs.
Other Options – Brandon Lowe ($4,500)
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners ($5,000) - Targeting Justus Sheffield for home runs has worked this season, so why stop now? Bregman has been one of the best lefty mashers since the beginning of last season (vs. LHP: .422 wOBA, .254 ISO and 178 wRC+). After Sheffield is disposed, Bregman will face one the worst bullpens in baseball (5.33 xFIP).
Other Options – Ryan McMahon ($4,800)
Rougned Odor, New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles ($3,100) - There’s nothing wrong with taking a cheap hitter against Matt Harvey, and Odor is starting to hit — he homered on Friday and Saturday. Odor puts the ball in the air 48% of the time and could easily walk away with a cheapie home run off of Harvey at Baltimore.
Other Options – Evan Longoria ($4,100)
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners ($5,400) - Stacking against Sheffield may not be the best option, but if the terrible Mariners bullpen is factored in, then stacking becomes a good plan. Over his career, Correa has a .366 wOBA and a 136 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Sheffield has allowed seven barrels this season despite being a ground-ball pitcher. It’s a volume problem. Sheffield does not miss bats. Eventually, some of the contact takes flight.
Other Options – Corey Seager ($5,100)
Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs ($3,900) - This is another player that is due to breakout. His xwOBA is .332, but his actual wOBA is .259. That’s not the biggest margin, but he’s hitting the ball hard (38%), and he’s not chasing pitches (24%). Going back to the start of last season, Swanson was an above-average hitter against right-handed pitching. Zach Davies on the other hand, has been a slightly below-average pitcher against right-handed batters (.338 wOBA and 1.5 HR/9).
Other Options – Jose Iglesias ($3,100)
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers ($6,300) - Hopefully, Trout is healthy and gets to take part in this primo matchup against Jordan Lyles, though Trout doesn’t need a preferable matchup this season. His barrel rate is 25%, and 64% of his hits are hard hits. Lyles will make it pretty easy for Trout and most of the Angels. Right-handed batters have a .362 wOBA, .289 ISO and 2.5 HR/9 against Lyles this season. If Trout sits, then consider the value option in Scott Schebler.
Other Options – Aaron Judge ($5,900)
Mark Canha, Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays ($4,100) - Oakland right-handed batters against Rich Hill are in play, especially the ones that hit left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of last season, Canha has a .432 wOBA, .200 ISO, 185 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Other Options – Scott Schebler ($2,800)
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