Monday starts the week off with a nine-game slate of baseball. We will talk about it here.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Julio Urias, $9,700, Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+155) — The Dodgers are coming off one of the most entertaining weekend series against the Padres that had a playoff atmosphere in all three games. Not sure we’re going to get that against the Reds but the Dodgers will look to recoup after losing three of the last four.
Urias is coming off an absolute gem his last time out, when he tossed a one-hitter through seven innings and struck out 11 Mariners for 40.6 DKFP. While it’s not nice to take advantage of the future AL West Champions, Urias generated 17 swings and misses in the dominant outing. Up to this point, the Reds have not been an overly strong team against lefties with just a .308 wOBA, a .174 ISO, a 92 wRC+ and a 26% K%.
The interesting part is the pitch arsenal that Urias owns, which features a fastball, curveball and changeup. The Reds currently rank second against the fastball and first against the curveball. Despite some iffy numbers against lefties, this would certainly bring my enthusiasm to use Urias heavily in my lineups down several notches. Especially with his last outing, I expect Urias to be a very popular SP1.
Other notable favorite: Charlie Morton ($8,000; -177) vs. Chicago Cubs
Highest Projected Total
New York Yankees (-165; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+145; 3.5 runs) 9 runs — The Yankees have the highest projected team total on this slate as they go up against Matt Harvey ($5,300). This will be his fourth outing of the season and has surprisingly pitched well thus far. His command has been excellent with just a 1.4 BB/9, he’s only given up two home runs and his FIP currently stand at 3.41, which is quite a difference from his 5.12 ERA.
The Yankees offense continues to scuffle, as they averaged four runs per game in the four-game series against the Indians. If this was last year, sure, taking the Yankees against Harvey at 5.5 runs would likely be an over. But this offense against righties has just a .290 wOBA, a .143 ISO, an 89 wRC+ and a 24.8% K%. Truly, nothing you get overly excited about. At least until I see a bad outing out of Harvey, I’m not going out of my way to target against him. There are no numbers that Harvey currently has that shows me he’s going to regress soon.
When it comes to the the bullpens, both side have been very strong over the past week so I would even go as far to say this is a potential under to consider. Both of these teams have been poor at hitting the over and enter this game with a combined record of 17-24-1 in that scenario.
Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .415, 6.55
Jordan Lyles, .350, 5.57
Charlie Morton, .337, 4.66
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Urquidy, .174, 3.48
Justus Sheffield, .192, 2.38
Julio Urias, .212, 3.87
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jose Urquidy, .368, 6.43
Jordan Lyles, .363, 6.29
Taylor Rogers, .356, 3.19
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Corbin Burnes, .207, 2.06
Austin Gomber, .237, 2.37
Adam Wainwright, .272, 2.95
Pitcher to Build Around
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins, $10,400 — I don’t care how chalky or popular Burnes is, I need a piece. The man is simply pitching on a different level and has 40 strikeouts in just 24 1⁄3 innings. That’s truly amazing. That amount of strikeouts has given him a 47.1% K% and a 19% swing-and-miss rate. After we stop gushing about his strikeouts, we can also let you know he’s allowed one run in his four starts while going no less than six innings in each of them.
The Marlins round out the top 10 in K% against righties at 25.7% to go with a .280 wOBA, a .104 ISO and an 80 wRC+. Burnes has at least nine strikeouts in each start and double-digits in three of the four. Two of those starts have come against teams who are near the lower half of the list against righties in K% with the Twins ranked 18th (24%) and the Padres at 26th (22.3%). The Cubs had the highest K% of the teams he faced at 27.6% (5th) and he struck out 10 through six innings.
So yeah, I’d take Burnes twice if I could.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, $5,700 — Two series against the National League West has really rejuvenated a slow start to the season for Harper. Against the Giants and Rockies at Coors Field, Harper has averaged 15 (!) DKFP with three home runs, three RBI, eight runs scored and a stolen base. He’ll look to continue riding that hot streak against Adam Wainwright ($7,200), who has had the benefit of facing the Nationals in his last two starts. Lefties have been giving him the most trouble, tagging him with a .381 wOBA, a a 5.14 FIP, and two of the three home runs he’s allowed. With strong winds blowing out in St. Louis, I’m liking another big game from Harper.
Save Big by Drafting
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies, $3,800 — It’s looking as if sitting out the 2020 season was the best move Posey could have made. He’s had a really nice start to the season, slashing .277/.358/.553 with four home runs and an average of 7.6 DKFP per game. Tonight he’ll get Austin Gomber ($6,500), who is looking like a decent pick up for the Rockies this offseason. With that said, Posey has really been punishing left-handed pitching in 2021 with a .418 wOBA, a .316 ISO (Ohhhhhh hell yeahhhh) and a 167 wRC+. The early power numbers from Posey are a great sign, as it was nearly nonexistent in 2019 when he last played. At $3,800, he’s a great value at catcher.
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