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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Reds vs. Dodgers Showdown on April 26

Garion Thorne gives his top lineup advice for Monday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Reds and Dodgers, which starts at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Los Angeles Dodgers v Seattle Mariners Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images

While I could point out that we’ll draw a nice pitching matchup in tonight’s Showdown contest between the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s sort of difficult for the latter to not be in a pitcher’s duel. In fact, the Dodgers’ starters come into Monday in possession of a 2.52 combined ERA and a 3.4 fWAR that leads all of baseball. In short, it’s a staggeringly talented rotation.

Will the Reds be able to compete with that star power this evening? Let’s break it all down.


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Julio Urias ($17,100 CP) - Though Tyler Mahle ($11,000) has had an incredible start to the 2021 season, I think Urias is the only pitcher you can consider slotting in at Captain on Monday. Not only does the left-hander have the benefit of the easier matchup, but he’s also coming off arguably the best outing of his career last week, throwing seven scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts against the Mariners. While it isn’t assured that Urias will be able to recreate that type of performance this evening, the Reds are an ideal opponent. To wit, Urias currently leads all qualified starters in baseball with a stunning 48.0% chase rate. Meanwhile, Cincinnati owns by far the league’s lowest outside the zone contact rate at 54.2%. Basically, when they swing at a bad pitch, they miss, and no one induces more of those swings than Urias. Also, while the Reds sit third in MLB with a .344 wOBA versus RHPs, that figure falls to .308 when facing a southpaw.

Corey Seager ($13,800 CP) - Here’s a spot where you’ll have to weigh recency bias and track record. Through his four starts in 2021, Mahle has been untouchable when opposed by an LHB. In fact, the right-hander has struck out 40.8% of the 49 he’s seen and he’s yet to allow an extra-base hit within the split. However, across the first four seasons of Mahle’s career — a span of 652 left-handed plate appearances — the 26-year-old has surrendered 2.1 home runs per nine and a robust .374 wOBA to lefties. In all likelihood, our expectations of Mahle should lay somewhere in the middle of those two extremes; but it’s important to remember this is also about Seager. Going back to the beginning of 2020, the shortstop has posted a .277 ISO and a 158 wRC+ in opposite-hand matchups. He’s viable against any RHP in the league.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (CIN vs LAD)


UTIL Plays

Max Muncy ($7,800) - I’ll be honest, it’s a little jarring to see Muncy at this much of a discount. Generally, the veteran has found himself up in the $9K tier with the likes of Mookie Betts ($9,800) and Justin Turner ($8,800), yet Muncy’s price tag is below $8K on Monday, making him downright affordable. It’s unclear why the DraftKings algorithm has suddenly soured on Muncy. Yes, much of his value is derived from drawing walks — not a skill that translates well to DFS — however, Muncy owns a 1.101 OPS and a 195 wRC+ when facing an RHP in 2021. No matter the context, those numbers play.

Alex Blandino ($4,600) - Surprisingly, Blandino could end up being one of the most valuable assets on this entire slate. Really, it just comes down to where he’s slotted in the Reds’ lineup. The infielder hit fifth when Cincinnati last faced a left-handed starter back on Friday, while Blandino also hit leadoff in Sunday’s 5-2 loss to the Cardinals. The former first-round pick hasn’t showcased much pop at the MLB level; however, he’s slashing .350/.435/.500 across his 23 plate appearances in 2021. Plus, for his career, Blandino’s hitting .290 against lefties.


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Fades

Joey Votto ($8,200) - It brings me no joy to speak ill of the 37-year-old, but we’ve reached a point in Votto’s career where he simply doesn’t deserve to be this expensive. For full transparency, I have to point out that Votto’s slow start is mired in some truly bad luck. The veteran’s .402 expected wOBA and 13.8% barrel rate tell a vastly different story than his surface statistics; yet Votto’s also hitting .161 with a 77 wRC+ against LHPs going back to the start of last season. You can find better ways to spend $8K.


THE OUTCOME

After a torrid start to the season, the Reds are 1-10 in their last 11 games, 0-6 in their last six games as a road underdog and 1-5 in their last six games against a left-handed starter. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are a seemingly unstoppable juggernaut with a different ace taking the mound every night. On Monday, that’s Julio Urias, and I think it’s safe to say he’ll get the job done.

Final Score: Los Angeles 5, Cincinnati 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (CIN vs LAD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


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