13 games on the slate tonight. It’s a Tuesday. Let’s get wild.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lucas Giolito, $9,500, Chicago White Sox (-255) vs. Detroit Tigers (+205) — It’s been eight days since Giolito last took the mound, as his start was pushed back due to a finger injury. Apparently he cut his finger on a bottle? I mean, at least he knows how to party.
Giolito is coming off his worst start of the season, as he was shelled by the Red Sox. It’s very likely he was tipping his pitches, as the Red Sox knocked him out in the first inning and were hitting everything he was throwing. I’m more than willing to throw this start out, as he’d been stellar in three starts prior. Tonight he faces the Tigers that has some decent pop against righties but that’s about where the positive spins end. They have a team .291 wOBA with a .176 ISO, a 88 wRC+ and a 27.3% K%. Giolito relies on three pitches, a fastball, change and slider. Respectively, the Tigers rank 28th, 12th and 18th against those pitches. I’m more than comfortable backing him on a bounce-back start against the Tigers.
Other notable favorite: Charlie Morton ($8,000; -177) vs. Chicago Cubs
Highest Projected Total
New York Yankees (-190; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+160; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — These two teams are once again involved in the highest projected total of the night. I was on the side of the under last night and it hit with ease, as they combined for six runs on a nine run projection. This Yankees offense is not trustworthy at this juncture and are averaging 2.9 runs over their last 10 GAMES!!!!
Taking the mound for the Orioles is Bruce Zimmermann ($6,000) who’ll be making his fourth start. He’s allowed three runs in three of his four starts and has an overall 5.08 FIP, only a 6.2 K/9 and a 29.4% hard-hit rate allowed. But again, it’s hard to trust this Yankees offense, who was just stifled last night by Matt Harvey. The Yankees do have decent numbers against lefties with a .314 wOBA, a .150 ISO and a 102 wRC+. For me, I simply can’t back this team until I see consistency. At 5.5 runs, I would strongly have to consider taking the under on their team total and would even consider the under on this game total.
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Weather Notes
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Splits to Start
These stats will reflect 2020 numbers until May 1st.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Frankie Montas, .444, 6.41
Adrian Houser, .421, 6.96
Zach Eflin, .381, 5.27
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ian Anderson, .201, 1.75
Merrill Kelly, .227, 3.74
Walker Buehler, .240, 3.40
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Martinez, .469, 7.49
Trevor Williams, .453, 8.57
Michael Wacha, .445, 6.19
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Cristian Javier, .208, 4.34
Lucas Giolito, .243, 2.96
Marco Gonzales, .247, 3.40
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $10,900 — It’s really close for me between Giolito and Scherzer. Quite frankly, you can play BOTH if you want to be fancy, as that would leave you an average of $3,700 per hitter. With that said, I really like this spot for Scherzer against a Blue Jays team that hasn’t been hitting righties hard. On the season, the Blue Jays have a .292 wOBA, a .140 ISO and an 87 wRC+ against righties. They’re hovering around league average in K% at 24% but Scherzer, of course, has such a high ceiling when it comes to strikeouts. He’s reached nine in three of his four starts and has generated a 15.7% swing-and-miss rate. It’s a really great spot for the Nationals ace.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox at New York Mets, $5,700 — When we talk about elite hitters, Bogaerts usually doesn’t enter the conversation, yet. I think it’s only a matter of time before he enters that realm. He’s been crushing the ball thus far and enters this game averaging 8.8 DKFP and 9.9 over his last 10 games. Tonight, he’ll face the lefty David Peterson ($7,500) who has really gotten off to a rough start. In three starts against the Phillies and Cubs, Peterson has been tagged for 10 runs on 13 hits through 13 1⁄3 innings. Righties have already gotten to him for a .363 wOBA, a 5.41 FIP and three home runs.
Bogaerts continues to be a nightmare to opposing lefties and has a .452 wOBA, a .276 ISO and a 196 wRC+ against them in the early going. It’s in line with where he was last season and it’s simply a matchup I don’t want to fade. He’s one of the more expensive options to pay up for but I expect the Red Sox to knock Peterson out of this game early.
Save Big by Drafting
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics, $3,600 — Meadows has dropped quite a bit in salary, making him a really solid value against Frankie Montas ($7,300). Last season against lefties, Montas couldn’t get them out, posting a .444 wOBA, a 6.41 FIP and six of the 10 home runs he allowed. The Rays continue to use Meadows against lefties, which has driven down his numbers but against righties he’s been excellent. He has a .381 wOBA, a .246 ISO and a 156 wRC+ against them this season. I will happily take him at $3,600.
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